Putin’s constitutional eligibility for reelection through 2030, reinforced by 2020 amendments resetting term limits, underpins trader expectations that he will remain in office past December 2026. Recent statements, including his June 2026 sidestep of questions about serving until 2036 while emphasizing health as the only uncertainty, signal continuity rather than transition planning. Ongoing management of the Ukraine conflict, diplomatic engagement with the United States, and domestic elite balancing show no public moves toward succession or resignation. Isolated reports of public fatigue and economic pressures have not produced institutional challenges or elite defections capable of forcing an exit within the resolution window. The absence of scheduled elections or mandatory term-end triggers before 2030 further aligns with the current 90.5% implied probability on “No.”