Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick maintains a slim trader consensus edge at 51.5% in PA-01, buoyed by his moderate appeal, dominant fundraising—$7.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Bob Harvie's $600,000 as of late March—and history of narrow wins in the D+1 Bucks County suburbs. A March Global Strategy Group poll showed Fitzpatrick leading Harvie 48%-42% among likely voters, but the May 19 Democratic primary, featuring Harvie against Lucia Simonelli, remains pivotal; a unified, well-funded nominee could exploit midterm headwinds against the GOP's 218-214 House majority. National generic ballot leans Democratic add uncertainty, with high suburban turnout or campaign missteps likely to decide this battleground race by November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-01 House Election Winner
PA-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
53%
Democratic Party
51%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$845 Vol.
53%
Democratic Party
$470 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick maintains a slim trader consensus edge at 51.5% in PA-01, buoyed by his moderate appeal, dominant fundraising—$7.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Bob Harvie's $600,000 as of late March—and history of narrow wins in the D+1 Bucks County suburbs. A March Global Strategy Group poll showed Fitzpatrick leading Harvie 48%-42% among likely voters, but the May 19 Democratic primary, featuring Harvie against Lucia Simonelli, remains pivotal; a unified, well-funded nominee could exploit midterm headwinds against the GOP's 218-214 House majority. National generic ballot leans Democratic add uncertainty, with high suburban turnout or campaign missteps likely to decide this battleground race by November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,315End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick maintains a slim trader consensus edge at 51.5% in PA-01, buoyed by his moderate appeal, dominant fundraising—$7.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Bob Harvie's $600,000 as of late March—and history of narrow wins in the D+1 Bucks County suburbs. A March Global Strategy Group poll showed Fitzpatrick leading Harvie 48%-42% among likely voters, but the May 19 Democratic primary, featuring Harvie against Lucia Simonelli, remains pivotal; a unified, well-funded nominee could exploit midterm headwinds against the GOP's 218-214 House majority. National generic ballot leans Democratic add uncertainty, with high suburban turnout or campaign missteps likely to decide this battleground race by November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,315End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick maintains a slim trader consensus edge at 51.5% in PA-01, buoyed by his moderate appeal, dominant fundraising—$7.7 million cash on hand versus Democrat Bob Harvie's $600,000 as of late March—and history of narrow wins in the D+1 Bucks County suburbs. A March Global Strategy Group poll showed Fitzpatrick leading Harvie 48%-42% among likely voters, but the May 19 Democratic primary, featuring Harvie against Lucia Simonelli, remains pivotal; a unified, well-funded nominee could exploit midterm headwinds against the GOP's 218-214 House majority. National generic ballot leans Democratic add uncertainty, with high suburban turnout or campaign missteps likely to decide this battleground race by November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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