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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Christine Drazan 81%

Ed Diehl 11%

Chris Dudley 6.0%

Danielle Bethell <1%

Polymarket

$106,323 Vol.

Christine Drazan 81%

Ed Diehl 11%

Chris Dudley 6.0%

Danielle Bethell <1%

Polymarket

$106,323 Vol.

Christine Drazan

$21,647 Vol.

81%

Ed Diehl

$6,086 Vol.

11%

Chris Dudley

$13,047 Vol.

6%

Danielle Bethell

$8,246 Vol.

1%

Kyle Duyck

$19,648 Vol.

<1%

Robert Neuman

$9,434 Vol.

<1%

Caleb Kintz

$4,170 Vol.

<1%

Chael Sonnen

$12,229 Vol.

<1%

Brad T. Peters

$3,954 Vol.

<1%

David Medina

$3,827 Vol.

<1%

Patrick Kopke-Hales

$4,035 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Christine Drazan commands an 80.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner in Oregon's Republican gubernatorial primary on May 19, driven by two recent independent polls—Nelson Research (April 14-17) and Hoffman Research (April 23-24)—showing her at 31-35% support among likely voters, well ahead of Ed Diehl (15-18%) and Chris Dudley (14-18%), with 18-25% undecided but leaners favoring her. Her lead stems from strong name recognition as the 2022 GOP nominee who narrowly lost to Gov. Tina Kotek, endorsements from Oregon Farm Bureau and Oregon Right to Life, disciplined campaigning targeting primary voters, and parity in fundraising over $2 million. Diehl benefits from grassroots momentum via his anti-tax referendum, while Dudley leverages past 2010 nomination and big donors like Phil Knight, though both face lower name ID. Ballots began mailing April 29, with recent debates sharpening contrasts in the crowded 10-candidate field.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$106,323
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Christine Drazan commands an 80.5% implied probability as the trader consensus frontrunner in Oregon's Republican gubernatorial primary on May 19, driven by two recent independent polls—Nelson Research (April 14-17) and Hoffman Research (April 23-24)—showing her at 31-35% support among likely voters, well ahead of Ed Diehl (15-18%) and Chris Dudley (14-18%), with 18-25% undecided but leaners favoring her. Her lead stems from strong name recognition as the 2022 GOP nominee who narrowly lost to Gov. Tina Kotek, endorsements from Oregon Farm Bureau and Oregon Right to Life, disciplined campaigning targeting primary voters, and parity in fundraising over $2 million. Diehl benefits from grassroots momentum via his anti-tax referendum, while Dudley leverages past 2010 nomination and big donors like Phil Knight, though both face lower name ID. Ballots began mailing April 29, with recent debates sharpening contrasts in the crowded 10-candidate field.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$106,323
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christine Drazan" at 81%, followed by "Ed Diehl" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $106.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Christine Drazan" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ed Diehl" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.