Skip to main content
icon for NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Denise Powell 70%

John Cavanaugh 31%

Mark Johnston <1%

Evangelos Argyrakis <1%

Polymarket

$19,982 Vol.

Denise Powell 70%

John Cavanaugh 31%

Mark Johnston <1%

Evangelos Argyrakis <1%

Polymarket

$19,982 Vol.

Denise Powell

$5,571 Vol.

70%

John Cavanaugh

$9,885 Vol.

31%

Mark Johnston

$2,947 Vol.

<1%

Evangelos Argyrakis

$1,579 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary set for May 12, trader consensus favors Denise Powell at 69.5% implied probability, driven by a recent GQR poll commissioned by supportive PACs showing her leading John Cavanaugh 41%-34% after messaging, alongside her continued first-quarter fundraising dominance reported April 22. Cavanaugh holds at 31% amid escalating negative ads from both campaigns, pro-Israel Super PAC buys boosting Powell while he critiques them as dark money, and his endorsements from six state lawmakers and labor groups. The crowded field has consolidated, with others like Mark Johnston and Evangelos Argyrakis negligible, but GOP-backed attacks on Cavanaugh add uncertainty to this pivotal open-seat battleground race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,982
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary set for May 12, trader consensus favors Denise Powell at 69.5% implied probability, driven by a recent GQR poll commissioned by supportive PACs showing her leading John Cavanaugh 41%-34% after messaging, alongside her continued first-quarter fundraising dominance reported April 22. Cavanaugh holds at 31% amid escalating negative ads from both campaigns, pro-Israel Super PAC buys boosting Powell while he critiques them as dark money, and his endorsements from six state lawmakers and labor groups. The crowded field has consolidated, with others like Mark Johnston and Evangelos Argyrakis negligible, but GOP-backed attacks on Cavanaugh add uncertainty to this pivotal open-seat battleground race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,982
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

34%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Denise Powell" at 70%, followed by "John Cavanaugh" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Denise Powell" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cavanaugh" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.