Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10 with 84% of the vote, defeating challenger Sawyer Walters amid low-turnout midterm dynamics. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and Army veteran, advanced from a contested primary, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. MS-04's strong Republican lean—reflected in Ezell's prior landslide wins (72% in 2022)—and lack of competitive polling underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 62.5% implied probability, with Democrats at 8%. No major catalysts like endorsements or scandals have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this post-primary positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-04 House Election Winner
MS-04 House Election Winner
$23,433 Vol.
$23,433 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
9%
$23,433 Vol.
$23,433 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,318 Vol.
69%
Democratic Party
$14,115 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10 with 84% of the vote, defeating challenger Sawyer Walters amid low-turnout midterm dynamics. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and Army veteran, advanced from a contested primary, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. MS-04's strong Republican lean—reflected in Ezell's prior landslide wins (72% in 2022)—and lack of competitive polling underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 62.5% implied probability, with Democrats at 8%. No major catalysts like endorsements or scandals have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this post-primary positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$23,433End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10 with 84% of the vote, defeating challenger Sawyer Walters amid low-turnout midterm dynamics. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and Army veteran, advanced from a contested primary, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. MS-04's strong Republican lean—reflected in Ezell's prior landslide wins (72% in 2022)—and lack of competitive polling underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 62.5% implied probability, with Democrats at 8%. No major catalysts like endorsements or scandals have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this post-primary positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,433End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured the GOP nomination in Mississippi's 4th Congressional District primary on March 10 with 84% of the vote, defeating challenger Sawyer Walters amid low-turnout midterm dynamics. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum III, a state representative and Army veteran, advanced from a contested primary, setting up a general election matchup on November 3. MS-04's strong Republican lean—reflected in Ezell's prior landslide wins (72% in 2022)—and lack of competitive polling underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 62.5% implied probability, with Democrats at 8%. No major catalysts like endorsements or scandals have emerged in the past 30 days to alter this post-primary positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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