Skip to main content
icon for Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner

Mike Rogers 94%

Fred Heurtebise 2.4%

Andrew Kamal 1.9%

Kent Benham 1.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Rogers 94%

Fred Heurtebise 2.4%

Andrew Kamal 1.9%

Kent Benham 1.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Rogers

$3,217 Vol.

94%

Fred Heurtebise

$566 Vol.

2%

Andrew Kamal

$282 Vol.

2%

Kent Benham

$0 Vol.

2%

Bernadette Smith

$403 Vol.

2%

Genevieve Scott

$289 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Mike Rogers commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Michigan's Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 4, driven by his consistent polling dominance—including 55% support in the April 16 Emerson College survey amid 38% undecideds—and strong fundraising with over $4 million cash on hand as of late April. Recent boosts include a $45 million commitment from the Senate Leadership Fund on April 6 and his Trump endorsement, bolstering name recognition from a narrow 2024 general election loss. Minor challengers like Fred Heurtebise, Andrew Kamal, Kent Benham, and Bernadette Smith lack comparable resources or momentum. While late scandals, health issues, or a high-profile defection could shift odds, the crowded Democratic primary distracts attention, solidifying Rogers' frontrunner status.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,758
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 1:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Mike Rogers commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94% implied probability to win Michigan's Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 4, driven by his consistent polling dominance—including 55% support in the April 16 Emerson College survey amid 38% undecideds—and strong fundraising with over $4 million cash on hand as of late April. Recent boosts include a $45 million commitment from the Senate Leadership Fund on April 6 and his Trump endorsement, bolstering name recognition from a narrow 2024 general election loss. Minor challengers like Fred Heurtebise, Andrew Kamal, Kent Benham, and Bernadette Smith lack comparable resources or momentum. While late scandals, health issues, or a high-profile defection could shift odds, the crowded Democratic primary distracts attention, solidifying Rogers' frontrunner status.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,758
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 1:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Related

icon for Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

24%
icon for Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

44%
icon for 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Rogers" at 94%, followed by "Fred Heurtebise" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 22, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Mike Rogers" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fred Heurtebise" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.