Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains commanding leads in recent University of New Hampshire polling from mid-April 2026, topping the Democratic primary at 46% over Rep. Seth Moulton’s 33% and crushing likely Republican nominee John Deaton 55%-32% in a general election matchup, with Moulton faring even stronger at 56%-32%. Massachusetts’ entrenched Democratic dominance—electing no Republican senators since the 1970s except brief exceptions like Scott Brown—drives trader consensus implying near-certainty of a party hold ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include Markey’s age-related health events, a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, or an extraordinary national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMassachusetts Senate Election Winner
Massachusetts Senate Election Winner
$12,932 Vol.
$12,932 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
4%
$12,932 Vol.
$12,932 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$8,328 Vol.
95%
Republican
$4,603 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains commanding leads in recent University of New Hampshire polling from mid-April 2026, topping the Democratic primary at 46% over Rep. Seth Moulton’s 33% and crushing likely Republican nominee John Deaton 55%-32% in a general election matchup, with Moulton faring even stronger at 56%-32%. Massachusetts’ entrenched Democratic dominance—electing no Republican senators since the 1970s except brief exceptions like Scott Brown—drives trader consensus implying near-certainty of a party hold ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include Markey’s age-related health events, a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, or an extraordinary national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,932End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains commanding leads in recent University of New Hampshire polling from mid-April 2026, topping the Democratic primary at 46% over Rep. Seth Moulton’s 33% and crushing likely Republican nominee John Deaton 55%-32% in a general election matchup, with Moulton faring even stronger at 56%-32%. Massachusetts’ entrenched Democratic dominance—electing no Republican senators since the 1970s except brief exceptions like Scott Brown—drives trader consensus implying near-certainty of a party hold ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include Markey’s age-related health events, a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, or an extraordinary national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$12,932End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains commanding leads in recent University of New Hampshire polling from mid-April 2026, topping the Democratic primary at 46% over Rep. Seth Moulton’s 33% and crushing likely Republican nominee John Deaton 55%-32% in a general election matchup, with Moulton faring even stronger at 56%-32%. Massachusetts’ entrenched Democratic dominance—electing no Republican senators since the 1970s except brief exceptions like Scott Brown—drives trader consensus implying near-certainty of a party hold ahead of the September 1 primary and November 3 general election. Realistic challenges include Markey’s age-related health events, a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, or an extraordinary national Republican wave, though historical base rates favor Democrats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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