Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—occurring several times per century globally, with the last confirmed at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring data. As of late April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year, mostly VEI ≤2 like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu episodes of lava fountaining, but none approach the 10+ km³ tephra volume threshold for VEI 6. No high-alert volcanoes (e.g., Mayon at Alert Level 3, Shishaldin advisory) show signs of caldera-forming explosivity. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at systems like Iwo Jima or Campi Flegrei, though weekly USGS updates and seismic surveillance provide early indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$83,463 Vol.
$83,463 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$83,463 Vol.
$83,463 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—occurring several times per century globally, with the last confirmed at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring data. As of late April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year, mostly VEI ≤2 like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu episodes of lava fountaining, but none approach the 10+ km³ tephra volume threshold for VEI 6. No high-alert volcanoes (e.g., Mayon at Alert Level 3, Shishaldin advisory) show signs of caldera-forming explosivity. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at systems like Iwo Jima or Campi Flegrei, though weekly USGS updates and seismic surveillance provide early indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$83,463End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—occurring several times per century globally, with the last confirmed at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring data. As of late April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year, mostly VEI ≤2 like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu episodes of lava fountaining, but none approach the 10+ km³ tephra volume threshold for VEI 6. No high-alert volcanoes (e.g., Mayon at Alert Level 3, Shishaldin advisory) show signs of caldera-forming explosivity. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at systems like Iwo Jima or Campi Flegrei, though weekly USGS updates and seismic surveillance provide early indicators.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$83,463End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability for no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—occurring several times per century globally, with the last confirmed at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursors in current USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring data. As of late April 2026, 47 eruptions have occurred worldwide this year, mostly VEI ≤2 like Kīlauea's ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu episodes of lava fountaining, but none approach the 10+ km³ tephra volume threshold for VEI 6. No high-alert volcanoes (e.g., Mayon at Alert Level 3, Shishaldin advisory) show signs of caldera-forming explosivity. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at systems like Iwo Jima or Campi Flegrei, though weekly USGS updates and seismic surveillance provide early indicators.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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