Traders assign "No" a 90.7% implied probability for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 because only six months remain and short-term seismic rates remain low. USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center records show only minor events (mostly below M4) through mid-2026, consistent with the long inter-event intervals on major faults like the San Andreas and Newport-Inglewood. UCERF3 models place the annual chance of an M6.7+ event in Southern California well below 10%, even with new June 2026 research indicating critically loaded stress on linked fault segments. A sudden foreshock sequence or rapid multi-fault rupture could still trigger a qualifying event, though such triggering remains statistically rare in the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
$12,435 Vol.
$12,435 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$12,435 Vol.
$12,435 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Traders assign "No" a 90.7% implied probability for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 because only six months remain and short-term seismic rates remain low. USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center records show only minor events (mostly below M4) through mid-2026, consistent with the long inter-event intervals on major faults like the San Andreas and Newport-Inglewood. UCERF3 models place the annual chance of an M6.7+ event in Southern California well below 10%, even with new June 2026 research indicating critically loaded stress on linked fault segments. A sudden foreshock sequence or rapid multi-fault rupture could still trigger a qualifying event, though such triggering remains statistically rare in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$12,435End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Traders assign "No" a 90.7% implied probability for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 because only six months remain and short-term seismic rates remain low. USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center records show only minor events (mostly below M4) through mid-2026, consistent with the long inter-event intervals on major faults like the San Andreas and Newport-Inglewood. UCERF3 models place the annual chance of an M6.7+ event in Southern California well below 10%, even with new June 2026 research indicating critically loaded stress on linked fault segments. A sudden foreshock sequence or rapid multi-fault rupture could still trigger a qualifying event, though such triggering remains statistically rare in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$12,435End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign "No" a 90.7% implied probability for a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in the Los Angeles area before 2027 because only six months remain and short-term seismic rates remain low. USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center records show only minor events (mostly below M4) through mid-2026, consistent with the long inter-event intervals on major faults like the San Andreas and Newport-Inglewood. UCERF3 models place the annual chance of an M6.7+ event in Southern California well below 10%, even with new June 2026 research indicating critically loaded stress on linked fault segments. A sudden foreshock sequence or rapid multi-fault rupture could still trigger a qualifying event, though such triggering remains statistically rare in the narrow remaining window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions