**Trader sentiment for Miami’s lowest temperature on June 15 centers on 78–79°F (45.5% implied probability) and adjacent bins (76–81°F collectively over 85%), consistent with climatological norms and current forecast guidance.** Mid-June places Miami in its rainy-season regime, characterized by high humidity, southeasterly flow, and frequent afternoon convection that limits nighttime radiational cooling. Historical data show average daily lows near 77°F, with the 10th–90th percentile range typically 73–81°F; values below 72°F are rare without a strong cold front, which is absent in current National Weather Service and model guidance. Recent observations and short-range forecasts indicate overnight minima holding in the upper 70s under partly cloudy skies and light winds, producing the narrow probability distribution traders have priced. Upcoming National Hurricane Center and local forecast updates through the evening of June 14 remain the primary near-term catalyst; any shift in steering flow or convective timing could nudge probabilities modestly within the 76–81°F window but is unlikely to push outcomes outside it absent an unexpected synoptic change.