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Politics·Primaries

KY-06 Republican Primary Winner

icon for KY-06 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

KY-06 Republican Primary Winner

Ralph Alvarado 81%

Ryan Dotson 13.2%

Adam Perez Arquette 7.6%

Gavin Solomon 4.8%

Polymarket

$19,045 Vol.

Ralph Alvarado 81%

Ryan Dotson 13.2%

Adam Perez Arquette 7.6%

Gavin Solomon 4.8%

Polymarket

$19,045 Vol.

Ralph Alvarado

$7,588 Vol.

81%

Ryan Dotson

$8,100 Vol.

13%

Adam Perez Arquette

$1,543 Vol.

8%

Gavin Solomon

$958 Vol.

5%

Greg Plucinski

$856 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Kentucky state Sen. Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his strong fundraising—among the top with outside contributions—and a fresh U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement announced within the past day, signaling business community support in the open seat race vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid. As a physician and experienced legislator positioning as an America First conservative, Alvarado benefits from name recognition in the closed primary. Challengers like state Rep. Ryan Dotson (9.6%) draw conservative endorsements for his legislative record on parental rights and border security, while Adam Perez Arquette (12.3%) garners niche attention despite recent controversies; late developments like additional endorsements or turnout among GOP primary voters could shift odds before ballots close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,045
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Kentucky state Sen. Ralph Alvarado leads trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his strong fundraising—among the top with outside contributions—and a fresh U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement announced within the past day, signaling business community support in the open seat race vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid. As a physician and experienced legislator positioning as an America First conservative, Alvarado benefits from name recognition in the closed primary. Challengers like state Rep. Ryan Dotson (9.6%) draw conservative endorsements for his legislative record on parental rights and border security, while Adam Perez Arquette (12.3%) garners niche attention despite recent controversies; late developments like additional endorsements or turnout among GOP primary voters could shift odds before ballots close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,045
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ralph Alvarado" at 81%, followed by "Ryan Dotson" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $19K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" is "Ralph Alvarado" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Dotson" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "KY-06 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.