The @khamenei_ir X account, managed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office and now referencing him as the martyred Leader following his February 2026 death, has posted zero updates since April 24 amid the April 24-May 1 window, driving trader consensus to price <5 posts at 40% implied probability. This reflects a sharp decline from early April's sporadic shares of archival statements—six between April 1-13—tied to geopolitical commentary on Zionism, US policy, and Resistance forces, with no activity in the prior week (April 17-24). Higher bins like 15-19 (25%) and 10-14 (16%) draw from occasional bursts in March amid post-succession tensions, though prolonged dormancy signals low volume absent major diplomatic or military catalysts before May 1 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?
Khamenei # posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?
<5 58%
15-19 40.0%
10-14 12%
5-9 5.9%
$14,504 Vol.
$14,504 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<5
45%
5-9
6%
10-14
7%
15-19
26%
20-24
1%
25-29
7%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 58%
15-19 40.0%
10-14 12%
5-9 5.9%
$14,504 Vol.
$14,504 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<5
$6,144 Vol.
45%
5-9
$505 Vol.
6%
10-14
$594 Vol.
7%
15-19
$1,532 Vol.
26%
20-24
$658 Vol.
1%
25-29
$489 Vol.
7%
30-34
$396 Vol.
1%
35-39
$793 Vol.
1%
40-44
$455 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$432 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$371 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
60+
$1,043 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The @khamenei_ir X account, managed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office and now referencing him as the martyred Leader following his February 2026 death, has posted zero updates since April 24 amid the April 24-May 1 window, driving trader consensus to price <5 posts at 40% implied probability. This reflects a sharp decline from early April's sporadic shares of archival statements—six between April 1-13—tied to geopolitical commentary on Zionism, US policy, and Resistance forces, with no activity in the prior week (April 17-24). Higher bins like 15-19 (25%) and 10-14 (16%) draw from occasional bursts in March amid post-succession tensions, though prolonged dormancy signals low volume absent major diplomatic or military catalysts before May 1 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$14,504End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The @khamenei_ir X account, managed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office and now referencing him as the martyred Leader following his February 2026 death, has posted zero updates since April 24 amid the April 24-May 1 window, driving trader consensus to price <5 posts at 40% implied probability. This reflects a sharp decline from early April's sporadic shares of archival statements—six between April 1-13—tied to geopolitical commentary on Zionism, US policy, and Resistance forces, with no activity in the prior week (April 17-24). Higher bins like 15-19 (25%) and 10-14 (16%) draw from occasional bursts in March amid post-succession tensions, though prolonged dormancy signals low volume absent major diplomatic or military catalysts before May 1 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$14,504End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...The @khamenei_ir X account, managed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office and now referencing him as the martyred Leader following his February 2026 death, has posted zero updates since April 24 amid the April 24-May 1 window, driving trader consensus to price <5 posts at 40% implied probability. This reflects a sharp decline from early April's sporadic shares of archival statements—six between April 1-13—tied to geopolitical commentary on Zionism, US policy, and Resistance forces, with no activity in the prior week (April 17-24). Higher bins like 15-19 (25%) and 10-14 (16%) draw from occasional bursts in March amid post-succession tensions, though prolonged dormancy signals low volume absent major diplomatic or military catalysts before May 1 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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