Exit polls following the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election across 140 constituencies project the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure a majority, positioning the Indian National Congress (INC) as the frontrunner to form the government and end the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front's (LDF) two consecutive terms. High voter turnout near 78%—the highest since 1987—combined with anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's administration, has driven trader consensus to price INC victory at 72%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Pre-election opinion polls indicated a knife-edge bipolar contest, but recent exit poll aggregates give UDF a narrow edge over LDF, with CPI(M) holding 28% implied probability amid LDF claims of internal surveys favoring them. Results will be counted on May 4, amid historical alternation patterns rarely broken for a third term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election Winner
INC 72%
CPI(M) 28%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$406,018 Vol.
$406,018 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
INC
72%
CPI(M)
28%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
INC 72%
CPI(M) 28%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$406,018 Vol.
$406,018 Vol.
Apr 9, 2026
INC
$78,729 Vol.
72%
CPI(M)
$74,253 Vol.
28%
BSP
$20,179 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$36,765 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$26,849 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$17,062 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$16,092 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$68,764 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$49,497 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$17,829 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Exit polls following the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election across 140 constituencies project the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure a majority, positioning the Indian National Congress (INC) as the frontrunner to form the government and end the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front's (LDF) two consecutive terms. High voter turnout near 78%—the highest since 1987—combined with anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's administration, has driven trader consensus to price INC victory at 72%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Pre-election opinion polls indicated a knife-edge bipolar contest, but recent exit poll aggregates give UDF a narrow edge over LDF, with CPI(M) holding 28% implied probability amid LDF claims of internal surveys favoring them. Results will be counted on May 4, amid historical alternation patterns rarely broken for a third term.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$406,018End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Exit polls following the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election across 140 constituencies project the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure a majority, positioning the Indian National Congress (INC) as the frontrunner to form the government and end the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front's (LDF) two consecutive terms. High voter turnout near 78%—the highest since 1987—combined with anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's administration, has driven trader consensus to price INC victory at 72%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Pre-election opinion polls indicated a knife-edge bipolar contest, but recent exit poll aggregates give UDF a narrow edge over LDF, with CPI(M) holding 28% implied probability amid LDF claims of internal surveys favoring them. Results will be counted on May 4, amid historical alternation patterns rarely broken for a third term.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$406,018End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Exit polls following the April 9, 2026, Kerala Legislative Assembly election across 140 constituencies project the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure a majority, positioning the Indian National Congress (INC) as the frontrunner to form the government and end the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front's (LDF) two consecutive terms. High voter turnout near 78%—the highest since 1987—combined with anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's administration, has driven trader consensus to price INC victory at 72%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets. Pre-election opinion polls indicated a knife-edge bipolar contest, but recent exit poll aggregates give UDF a narrow edge over LDF, with CPI(M) holding 28% implied probability amid LDF claims of internal surveys favoring them. Results will be counted on May 4, amid historical alternation patterns rarely broken for a third term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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