Skip to main content
icon for How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics·Global Elections

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

icon for How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics·Global Elections

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

19–21 45%

10–12 38%

16–18 33.4%

22+ 29.8%

Polymarket

$11,417 Vol.

19–21 45%

10–12 38%

16–18 33.4%

22+ 29.8%

Polymarket

$11,417 Vol.

<10

$341 Vol.

5%

10–12

$145 Vol.

38%

13–15

$95 Vol.

35%

16–18

$10,414 Vol.

33%

19–21

$63 Vol.

45%

22+

$359 Vol.

30%

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between IUML securing 19–21 seats (43%) and 10–12 (41.5%) in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, driven by uncertainty over the Indian Union Muslim League's performance in its expanded 27 constituencies despite exit polls projecting a UDF majority of 70–90 seats against LDF's 50–65. High 78% voter turnout on April 9 signals strong anti-incumbency against the incumbent LDF, potentially aiding UDF allies like IUML in Malabar strongholds such as Malappuram and Kozhikode, but historical exit poll inaccuracies, internal IUML dissent over candidate selections, and BJP's inroads in Muslim areas keep lower outcomes viable. IUML's introduction of youth and women candidates for the first time adds risk to marginal seats; separation awaits May 4 vote counting trends from northern districts.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$11,417
End Date
Apr 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide between IUML securing 19–21 seats (43%) and 10–12 (41.5%) in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election, driven by uncertainty over the Indian Union Muslim League's performance in its expanded 27 constituencies despite exit polls projecting a UDF majority of 70–90 seats against LDF's 50–65. High 78% voter turnout on April 9 signals strong anti-incumbency against the incumbent LDF, potentially aiding UDF allies like IUML in Malabar strongholds such as Malappuram and Kozhikode, but historical exit poll inaccuracies, internal IUML dissent over candidate selections, and BJP's inroads in Muslim areas keep lower outcomes viable. IUML's introduction of youth and women candidates for the first time adds risk to marginal seats; separation awaits May 4 vote counting trends from northern districts.

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala.

If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volume
$11,417
End Date
Apr 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19–21" at 46%, followed by "10–12" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" has generated $11.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" is "19–21" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10–12" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.