Skip to main content
icon for Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

icon for Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Charles Booker 84%

Amy McGrath 13%

Jared Randall <1%

Pamela Stevenson <1%

Polymarket

$30,257 Vol.

Charles Booker 84%

Amy McGrath 13%

Jared Randall <1%

Pamela Stevenson <1%

Polymarket

$30,257 Vol.

Charles Booker

$8,127 Vol.

84%

Amy McGrath

$5,365 Vol.

13%

Jared Randall

$5,273 Vol.

1%

Pamela Stevenson

$2,952 Vol.

<1%

Dale Romans

$1,925 Vol.

<1%

Joel Willett

$1,882 Vol.

<1%

Logan Forsythe

$2,804 Vol.

<1%

Vincent Thompson

$1,930 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Charles Booker's commanding 85% implied probability in the Kentucky Democratic U.S. Senate primary reflects trader consensus driven by a recent Emerson College poll showing him leading with 36% support among Democrats, more than double Amy McGrath's 18%, amid a crowded field ahead of the May 19 ballot. The April 2 survey, highlighting Booker's momentum as the 2022 nominee, has boosted his frontrunner status following his December 2025 announcement for a third Senate bid, while McGrath's January entry leverages her 2020 primary win but trails in current Democratic voter preference. A western Kentucky candidate forum on April 27 underscored the contest's competitiveness, though Booker's progressive grassroots push and endorsements, including from Rep. Ro Khanna, sustain his edge in this low-turnout primary. Late shifts remain possible from undecided voters or turnout dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$30,257
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Charles Booker's commanding 85% implied probability in the Kentucky Democratic U.S. Senate primary reflects trader consensus driven by a recent Emerson College poll showing him leading with 36% support among Democrats, more than double Amy McGrath's 18%, amid a crowded field ahead of the May 19 ballot. The April 2 survey, highlighting Booker's momentum as the 2022 nominee, has boosted his frontrunner status following his December 2025 announcement for a third Senate bid, while McGrath's January entry leverages her 2020 primary win but trails in current Democratic voter preference. A western Kentucky candidate forum on April 27 underscored the contest's competitiveness, though Booker's progressive grassroots push and endorsements, including from Rep. Ro Khanna, sustain his edge in this low-turnout primary. Late shifts remain possible from undecided voters or turnout dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$30,257
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky. If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Related

icon for Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

24%
icon for Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?

44%
icon for 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

49%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Charles Booker" at 84%, followed by "Amy McGrath" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $30.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Charles Booker" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Amy McGrath" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.