A developing El Niño, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of mid-June 2026 and high confidence in strengthening through winter, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting July 2026 global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have crossed El Niño thresholds, supported by weakening trade winds and model consensus projecting rapid intensification, which typically elevates global means within months via altered atmospheric circulation and reduced cloud cover over key ocean basins. Recent WMO and Met Office outlooks indicate continued near-record warmth, with 2026–2030 annual averages forecast between 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines, though July-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact El Niño strength, internal variability, and measurement updates from agencies like NASA and NOAA. Trader consensus clusters around these central bins amid acknowledged forecast spread and baseline uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 48%
1.20–1.24ºC 46%
<1.10ºC 42%
1.15–1.19ºC 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
42%
1.10–1.14ºC
48%
1.15–1.19ºC
42%
1.20–1.24ºC
46%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.10–1.14ºC 48%
1.20–1.24ºC 46%
<1.10ºC 42%
1.15–1.19ºC 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$83 Vol.
42%
1.10–1.14ºC
$63 Vol.
48%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47 Vol.
42%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 Vol.
46%
1.25–1.29ºC
$84 Vol.
40%
>1.29ºC
$54 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing El Niño, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of mid-June 2026 and high confidence in strengthening through winter, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting July 2026 global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have crossed El Niño thresholds, supported by weakening trade winds and model consensus projecting rapid intensification, which typically elevates global means within months via altered atmospheric circulation and reduced cloud cover over key ocean basins. Recent WMO and Met Office outlooks indicate continued near-record warmth, with 2026–2030 annual averages forecast between 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines, though July-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact El Niño strength, internal variability, and measurement updates from agencies like NASA and NOAA. Trader consensus clusters around these central bins amid acknowledged forecast spread and baseline uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$377End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing El Niño, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of mid-June 2026 and high confidence in strengthening through winter, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting July 2026 global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have crossed El Niño thresholds, supported by weakening trade winds and model consensus projecting rapid intensification, which typically elevates global means within months via altered atmospheric circulation and reduced cloud cover over key ocean basins. Recent WMO and Met Office outlooks indicate continued near-record warmth, with 2026–2030 annual averages forecast between 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines, though July-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact El Niño strength, internal variability, and measurement updates from agencies like NASA and NOAA. Trader consensus clusters around these central bins amid acknowledged forecast spread and baseline uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$377End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing El Niño, with NOAA confirming conditions present as of mid-June 2026 and high confidence in strengthening through winter, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting July 2026 global temperature anomaly odds toward the 1.10–1.24 °C range. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have crossed El Niño thresholds, supported by weakening trade winds and model consensus projecting rapid intensification, which typically elevates global means within months via altered atmospheric circulation and reduced cloud cover over key ocean basins. Recent WMO and Met Office outlooks indicate continued near-record warmth, with 2026–2030 annual averages forecast between 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines, though July-specific outcomes remain sensitive to exact El Niño strength, internal variability, and measurement updates from agencies like NASA and NOAA. Trader consensus clusters around these central bins amid acknowledged forecast spread and baseline uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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