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Politics·Global Elections

Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?

icon for Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?
Politics·Global Elections

Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?

40-45% 98.5%

50-55% 1.0%

35-40% <1%

<30% <1%

Polymarket

$28,281 Vol.

40-45% 98.5%

50-55% 1.0%

35-40% <1%

<30% <1%

Polymarket

$28,281 Vol.

<30%

$4,965 Vol.

1%

30-35%

$1,933 Vol.

1%

35-40%

$3,652 Vol.

1%

40-45%

$7,495 Vol.

99%

45-50%

$3,262 Vol.

<1%

50-55%

$3,038 Vol.

1%

55%+

$3,936 Vol.

1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda secured approximately 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election as the Historic Pact nominee and successor to term-limited President Gustavo Petro, locking in trader consensus for the 40-45 percent bracket. Pre-election polls had consistently placed him in the low-to-mid 40s or slightly lower, ahead of fragmented right-wing rivals, though late momentum consolidated behind Abelardo de la Espriella and produced a narrower margin than surveys projected. Cepeda’s support drew from established left-leaning coalitions focused on peace negotiations and social reforms, while structural factors such as the absence of an outright majority and runoff dynamics limited upside scenarios above 50 percent. Official tallies and rapid market pricing have since aligned tightly with this outcome, with limited remaining variables capable of shifting the recorded first-round share.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$28,281
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Iván Cepeda secured approximately 40.9 percent of the vote in Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential election as the Historic Pact nominee and successor to term-limited President Gustavo Petro, locking in trader consensus for the 40-45 percent bracket. Pre-election polls had consistently placed him in the low-to-mid 40s or slightly lower, ahead of fragmented right-wing rivals, though late momentum consolidated behind Abelardo de la Espriella and produced a narrower margin than surveys projected. Cepeda’s support drew from established left-leaning coalitions focused on peace negotiations and social reforms, while structural factors such as the absence of an outright majority and runoff dynamics limited upside scenarios above 50 percent. Official tallies and rapid market pricing have since aligned tightly with this outcome, with limited remaining variables capable of shifting the recorded first-round share.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$28,281
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 27, 2026, 10:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Iván Cepeda, not any coalition of which he may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40-45%" at 99%, followed by "<30%" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?" has generated $28.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?" is "40-45%" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<30%" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iván Cepeda vote share in 2026 Colombian presidential first round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.