Despite recent Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on multiple Litani River bridges— including a key crossing hit on April 7—to disrupt Hezbollah weapons transfers south, and evacuation orders extended to seven towns north of the river on April 27 amid ceasefire violations, IDF ground operations remain confined to the buffer zone south of the Litani. Late March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled plans for occupation up to the river, but no verified crossings have occurred, reflecting international diplomatic pressures and Hezbollah resistance. With two months until June 30, traders' 59% "No" consensus highlights the fragile ceasefire's restraint on escalation, though renewed Hezbollah rocket fire could prompt a shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
$515,334 Vol.
$515,334 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$515,334 Vol.
$515,334 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite recent Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on multiple Litani River bridges— including a key crossing hit on April 7—to disrupt Hezbollah weapons transfers south, and evacuation orders extended to seven towns north of the river on April 27 amid ceasefire violations, IDF ground operations remain confined to the buffer zone south of the Litani. Late March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled plans for occupation up to the river, but no verified crossings have occurred, reflecting international diplomatic pressures and Hezbollah resistance. With two months until June 30, traders' 59% "No" consensus highlights the fragile ceasefire's restraint on escalation, though renewed Hezbollah rocket fire could prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$515,334End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite recent Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on multiple Litani River bridges— including a key crossing hit on April 7—to disrupt Hezbollah weapons transfers south, and evacuation orders extended to seven towns north of the river on April 27 amid ceasefire violations, IDF ground operations remain confined to the buffer zone south of the Litani. Late March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled plans for occupation up to the river, but no verified crossings have occurred, reflecting international diplomatic pressures and Hezbollah resistance. With two months until June 30, traders' 59% "No" consensus highlights the fragile ceasefire's restraint on escalation, though renewed Hezbollah rocket fire could prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$515,334End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) airstrikes on multiple Litani River bridges— including a key crossing hit on April 7—to disrupt Hezbollah weapons transfers south, and evacuation orders extended to seven towns north of the river on April 27 amid ceasefire violations, IDF ground operations remain confined to the buffer zone south of the Litani. Late March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled plans for occupation up to the river, but no verified crossings have occurred, reflecting international diplomatic pressures and Hezbollah resistance. With two months until June 30, traders' 59% "No" consensus highlights the fragile ceasefire's restraint on escalation, though renewed Hezbollah rocket fire could prompt a shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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