**Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges and regional security assessments continue to shape trader views on whether Israel will initiate another major airspace closure by late June 2026.** Israeli airspace closed broadly on February 28, 2026, after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation that prompted multiple neighboring states to restrict flights. Limited commercial operations later resumed in phases under strict security reviews, but full normalcy has not returned amid persistent risks. Fresh escalations in early June, including reported strikes and Iranian airspace measures on June 8, have kept regional NOTAMs and EASA cautions active through at least June 24. Traders monitor security assessments, diplomatic signals, and any new military actions that could trigger renewed broad suspensions of civilian flights at Ben Gurion or across the Tel Aviv FIR.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,666,845 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
June 11
4%
June 12
8%
June 13
12%
June 14
14%
June 15
18%
June 30
32%
$13,666,845 Vol.
June 11
$277,375 Vol.
4%
June 12
$70,168 Vol.
8%
June 13
$42,434 Vol.
12%
June 14
$37,014 Vol.
14%
June 15
$4,401,985 Vol.
18%
June 30
$1,865,245 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges and regional security assessments continue to shape trader views on whether Israel will initiate another major airspace closure by late June 2026.**
Israeli airspace closed broadly on February 28, 2026, after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation that prompted multiple neighboring states to restrict flights. Limited commercial operations later resumed in phases under strict security reviews, but full normalcy has not returned amid persistent risks. Fresh escalations in early June, including reported strikes and Iranian airspace measures on June 8, have kept regional NOTAMs and EASA cautions active through at least June 24. Traders monitor security assessments, diplomatic signals, and any new military actions that could trigger renewed broad suspensions of civilian flights at Ben Gurion or across the Tel Aviv FIR.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,666,845End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges and regional security assessments continue to shape trader views on whether Israel will initiate another major airspace closure by late June 2026.**
Israeli airspace closed broadly on February 28, 2026, after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation that prompted multiple neighboring states to restrict flights. Limited commercial operations later resumed in phases under strict security reviews, but full normalcy has not returned amid persistent risks. Fresh escalations in early June, including reported strikes and Iranian airspace measures on June 8, have kept regional NOTAMs and EASA cautions active through at least June 24. Traders monitor security assessments, diplomatic signals, and any new military actions that could trigger renewed broad suspensions of civilian flights at Ben Gurion or across the Tel Aviv FIR.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,666,845End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing Israel-Iran military exchanges and regional security assessments continue to shape trader views on whether Israel will initiate another major airspace closure by late June 2026.** Israeli airspace closed broadly on February 28, 2026, after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation that prompted multiple neighboring states to restrict flights. Limited commercial operations later resumed in phases under strict security reviews, but full normalcy has not returned amid persistent risks. Fresh escalations in early June, including reported strikes and Iranian airspace measures on June 8, have kept regional NOTAMs and EASA cautions active through at least June 24. Traders monitor security assessments, diplomatic signals, and any new military actions that could trigger renewed broad suspensions of civilian flights at Ben Gurion or across the Tel Aviv FIR.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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