In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in February with American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, Tehran has retaliated via multiple missile and drone barrages against Israel, including early April attacks on Tel Aviv-area military bases using ballistic munitions coordinated with Yemeni allies. As of April 30, no fresh direct strikes occurred in the last 48 hours amid a US naval blockade choking the Strait of Hormuz, stalled ceasefire talks, and President Trump's public demand for Iranian capitulation. Israeli operations continue against Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing 14 today, while CENTCOM eyes further escalation, shaping trader focus on whether accumulated actions meet market definitions for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$5,173,806 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
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Jordan
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1%
Pakistan
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Azerbaijan
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Cyprus
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UK
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Yemen
<1%
Lebanon
<1%
Turkey
<1%
Germany
<1%
Armenia
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<1%
India
<1%
Spain
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France
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Italy
<1%
Hungary
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Ukraine
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$5,173,806 Vol.
Bahrain
$581,760 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$241,166 Vol.
1%
Oman
$100,830 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$66,256 Vol.
1%
Afghanistan
$13,375 Vol.
1%
Pakistan
$48,587 Vol.
1%
Azerbaijan
$105,620 Vol.
<1%
Cyprus
$27,794 Vol.
<1%
UK
$30,727 Vol.
<1%
Yemen
$22,587 Vol.
<1%
Lebanon
$65,187 Vol.
<1%
Turkey
$48,913 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$21,610 Vol.
<1%
Armenia
$12,325 Vol.
<1%
Syria
$26,381 Vol.
<1%
India
$31,184 Vol.
<1%
Spain
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<1%
France
$51,186 Vol.
<1%
Poland
$38,898 Vol.
<1%
Italy
$4,382 Vol.
<1%
Hungary
$26,893 Vol.
<1%
Ukraine
$16,345 Vol.
<1%
Georgia
$19,123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in February with American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, Tehran has retaliated via multiple missile and drone barrages against Israel, including early April attacks on Tel Aviv-area military bases using ballistic munitions coordinated with Yemeni allies. As of April 30, no fresh direct strikes occurred in the last 48 hours amid a US naval blockade choking the Strait of Hormuz, stalled ceasefire talks, and President Trump's public demand for Iranian capitulation. Israeli operations continue against Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing 14 today, while CENTCOM eyes further escalation, shaping trader focus on whether accumulated actions meet market definitions for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$5,173,806End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in February with American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, Tehran has retaliated via multiple missile and drone barrages against Israel, including early April attacks on Tel Aviv-area military bases using ballistic munitions coordinated with Yemeni allies. As of April 30, no fresh direct strikes occurred in the last 48 hours amid a US naval blockade choking the Strait of Hormuz, stalled ceasefire talks, and President Trump's public demand for Iranian capitulation. Israeli operations continue against Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing 14 today, while CENTCOM eyes further escalation, shaping trader focus on whether accumulated actions meet market definitions for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$5,173,806End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war that erupted in February with American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, Tehran has retaliated via multiple missile and drone barrages against Israel, including early April attacks on Tel Aviv-area military bases using ballistic munitions coordinated with Yemeni allies. As of April 30, no fresh direct strikes occurred in the last 48 hours amid a US naval blockade choking the Strait of Hormuz, stalled ceasefire talks, and President Trump's public demand for Iranian capitulation. Israeli operations continue against Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing 14 today, while CENTCOM eyes further escalation, shaping trader focus on whether accumulated actions meet market definitions for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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