Trader consensus heavily favors Democratic Party candidate Park Chan-dae at 93.5% implied probability to win Incheon's June 3 mayoral election, driven by consistent polling leads of 10–25 points over incumbent People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok, including a recent survey showing Park at 48.1%. High approval ratings for President Lee Jae-myung near 65% bolster Park, a close ally and key impeachment figure against the prior administration, amid PPP internal leadership chaos and lagging opposition support in the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi region. Park's April 22 candidacy declaration emphasized job creation and Songdo development, while Yoo's April 29 re-election bid has yet to narrow the gap. With campaigns intensifying, potential shifts from scandals, gaffes, or turnout favoring conservatives could alter dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedYoo Jeong-bok officially declares third Incheon mayoral bid, pledging economic zone and welfare expansion
Despite Yoo's formal declaration and policy pledges, market confidence remained low due to prior indictments and strong opposition.
People Power Party Yoo Jeong-bok declares third bid for Incheon mayor, pledging global airport economic zone
The entry of a strong People Power Party candidate further marginalized Park Nam-choon, confirming his market
Park Chan-dae publicly supports Kim Yong amid political controversy, demonstrating party solidarity and reinforcing his political stature
Park Chan-dae rises to 95%1%
Park Chan-dae publicly supports Kim Yong amid political controversy, demonstrating party solidarity and reinforcing his political stature
Park Chan‑dae backs the “Kim Yong” nomination fight, positioning himself against political‑prosecutor narratives
Park Chan‑dae backs the “Kim Yong” nomination fight, positioning himself against political‑prosecutor narratives
Follow‑up coverage repeats Yoon’s warning that “public sentiment in Incheon is dire,” contrasting with the ruling Democratic Party’s active campaign tours;
the repeated emphasis on his negative outlook reinforced market belief that he had no realistic path to victory
Park Chan-dae joins other Democratic candidates in announcing joint "Peace Zone" agreement to boost regional economy cooperation
Park Chan-dae rises to 95%1%
Park Chan-dae joins other Democratic candidates in announcing joint "Peace Zone" agreement to boost regional economy cooperation
Park Chan‑dae joins a joint “Peace Zone” press conference with other Democratic candidates, signaling regional cooperation
Park Chan‑dae joins a joint “Peace Zone” press conference with other Democratic candidates, signaling regional cooperation
Rival Park Chan-dae declares Incheon mayoral bid with strong biotech industry development platform, intensifying competition within the Democratic Party
The emergence of strong rivals like Park Chan-dae further diminished Kim's chances, solidifying his market
Park Chan‑dae announces his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the Democratic Party’s flagship candidate and drawing attention away from Kim Kyo‑heung
Park Chan‑dae announces his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the Democratic Party’s flagship candidate and drawing attention away from Kim Kyo‑heung
Park Chan-dae officially declares Incheon mayoral bid, pledges to build biotech capital and criticizes incumbent administration
Park Chan-dae's formal campaign launch with a strong economic development platform reinforced his frontrunner status, leaving no room for Park Nam-choon in the market.
Park Chan‑dae declares his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the front‑runner and drawing support away from Kim
Park Chan‑dae declares his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the front‑runner and drawing support away from Kim
Yoon Sang‑hyun repeats harsh criticism of the party’s local standing at another Supreme Council session, reinforcing the view that the PPP cannot recover in Incheon and keeping
Yoon Sang‑hyun repeats harsh criticism of the party’s local standing at another Supreme Council session, reinforcing the view that the PPP cannot recover in Incheon and keeping his outcome at zero
Park Chan‑dae launches his mayoral bid, unveiling a “biotech capital” platform for Incheon
Park Chan‑dae launches his mayoral bid, unveiling a “biotech capital” platform for Incheon
Park Chan-dae officially declares mayoral bid at Incheon City Hall, unveiling biotechnology industry development as top campaign pledge
Park Chan-dae rises to 94%1%
Park Chan-dae officially declares mayoral bid at Incheon City Hall, unveiling biotechnology industry development as top campaign pledge
Democratic candidate Park Chan-dae launches mayoral bid with sharp criticism of Yoo Jeong-bok's tenure
Yoo Jeong-bok rises to 4%1%
Park's campaign launch attacking Yoo's record further eroded Yoo's standing, reinforcing market skepticism.
At an Incheon Supreme Council session, Yoon Sang‑hyun delivers harsh criticism of public sentiment in Incheon, describing it as “dire,” which the media framed as an admission of
At an Incheon Supreme Council session, Yoon Sang‑hyun delivers harsh criticism of public sentiment in Incheon, describing it as “dire,” which the media framed as an admission of the PPP’s poor standing and further diminished expectations for his mayoral bid
Park Chan-dae pledges to raise local currency spending limits to boost Incheon economy, aligning with popular cash support policies from President Lee’s administration
Park Chan-dae rises to 93%3%
Park Chan-dae pledges to raise local currency spending limits to boost Incheon economy, aligning with popular cash support policies from President Lee’s administration
Democratic Party confirms candidate Park Chan-dae as frontrunner for Incheon mayor, overshadowing Lee Hak-jae
Lee Hak-jae dips to 0%1%
The ruling Democratic Party's candidate Park Chan-dae gained strong polling leads and party support, consolidating the market's expectation that Lee Hak-jae, from the opposition, had no realistic chance, pushing his.
Park Chan‑dae promises to raise the “Eum Card” monthly limit to 1 million won for three months after taking office
Park Chan‑dae rises to 95%2%
Park Chan‑dae promises to raise the “Eum Card” monthly limit to 1 million won for three months after taking office
Report notes Yoon Sang‑hyun’s call at the same May 6 Supreme Council meeting for “decisive action,” while incumbent mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok delays his registration to leverage
Yoon Sang-hyun dips to 0%4%
Report notes Yoon Sang‑hyun’s call at the same May 6 Supreme Council meeting for “decisive action,” while incumbent mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok delays his registration to leverage incumbency, signaling that the party is backing Yoo rather than Yoon
Democratic Party confirms four Incheon district candidates, highlighting former aide Ku Jae‑yong (Kim Kyo‑heung’s former aide) as a district‑chief contender, further marginalizing
Democratic Party confirms four Incheon district candidates, highlighting former aide Ku Jae‑yong (Kim Kyo‑heung’s former aide) as a district‑chief contender, further marginalizing Kim’s mayoral prospects
Democratic Party confirms candidates for Incheon district chief positions, with Kim Kyo-heung's former aide running for Seo-gu District chief, indicating shifting support within the party
Kim Kyo-heung dips to 0%2%
This event suggests weakening direct support for Kim as his allies run for lower offices, coinciding with his market
People Power Party scramble in the capital region as senior leaders consider independent campaigns;
Yoon Sang-hyun plunges to 4%44%
Yoon Sang‑hyun is quoted urging decisive action at an Incheon PPP Supreme Council meeting, highlighting party fragmentation and weakening his own candidacy
People Power Party's internal conflicts and Yoo Jeong-bok's strategy to delay candidate registration to leverage incumbent advantage
Reports of PPP factionalism and Yoo distancing himself from party leadership signaled weakened party support, stabilizing but not improving his market position.
At a People Power Party Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang‑hyun delivers a blunt critique that “public sentiment in Incheon is dire,” prompting traders to push his
At a People Power Party Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang‑hyun delivers a blunt critique that “public sentiment in Incheon is dire,” prompting traders to push his outcome to zero as the party’s internal rift deepens
Park Chan‑dae pledges job creation and Songdo development, attacking stalled projects
Park Chan‑dae jumps to 84%5%
Park Chan‑dae pledges job creation and Songdo development, attacking stalled projects
Opposition Democratic Party nominates strong candidate Park Chan-dae for Incheon mayor, setting up a high-profile contest
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 3%4%
The nomination of Park Chan-dae, a well-regarded lawmaker, intensified competition and reduced Yoo's perceived chances.
Opposition parties finalize match‑ups;
Park Chan‑dae jumps to 79%6%
Park Chan‑dae set to face incumbent Yoo Jeong‑bok in a one‑on‑one race
Democratic Party finalizes candidate matchups, confirming Park Chan-dae as challenger to incumbent Yoo Jeong-bok, framing the race as a key battleground
Park Chan-dae jumps to 79%6%
Democratic Party finalizes candidate matchups, confirming Park Chan-dae as challenger to incumbent Yoo Jeong-bok, framing the race as a key battleground
Young candidate Namgung Hyung endorses Park Chan-dae’s vision for Jemulpo district, signaling strong youth and local political support
Park Chan-dae rises to 73%3%
Young candidate Namgung Hyung endorses Park Chan-dae’s vision for Jemulpo district, signaling strong youth and local political support
Park Chan-dae holds press conference announcing mayoral bid, emphasizing lifelong ties to Incheon and connection to President Lee Jae-myung
Park Chan-dae rises to 70%2%
Park Chan-dae holds press conference announcing mayoral bid, emphasizing lifelong ties to Incheon and connection to President Lee Jae-myung
Park Chan‑dae formally announces his candidacy at Incheon City Hall, emphasizing his local roots
Park Chan‑dae rises to 70%2%
Park Chan‑dae formally announces his candidacy at Incheon City Hall, emphasizing his local roots
Democratic Party officially nominates Park Chan-dae as Incheon mayoral candidate, highlighting his local roots and party dedication
Park Chan-dae jumps to 68%9%
Democratic Party officially nominates Park Chan-dae as Incheon mayoral candidate, highlighting his local roots and party dedication
Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok signals historic third-term bid, highlighting past achievements
Yoo Jeong-bok drops to 7%6%
Yoo officially launched his third-term campaign emphasizing his record, but the market continued to discount his chances due to ongoing challenges.
Yoon Sang‑hyun appears on stage at mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok’s autobiography launch, publicly endorsing the incumbent and signaling no independent bid, which depresses market confidence
Yoon Sang‑hyun dips to 0%2%
Yoon Sang‑hyun appears on stage at mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok’s autobiography launch, publicly endorsing the incumbent and signaling no independent bid, which depresses market confidence in his own prospects
Democratic Party officially nominates Rep.
Park Chan‑dae jumps to 68%9%
Park Chan‑dae as its Incheon mayoral candidate
Park Chan-dae effectively declares candidacy for Incheon mayor, signaling commitment to the race and drawing attention from prominent party figures
Park Chan-dae surges to 59%16%
Park Chan-dae effectively declares candidacy for Incheon mayor, signaling commitment to the race and drawing attention from prominent party figures
Park Chan‑dae signals intent to run for Incheon mayor, vowing “everything for Incheon”
Park Chan‑dae drops to 43%6%
Park Chan‑dae signals intent to run for Incheon mayor, vowing “everything for Incheon”
Lee Hak-jae resigns as Incheon Airport CEO to run for mayor amid government conflicts
Lee Hak-jae dips to 1%4%
Lee Hak-jae announced his resignation from the airport corporation to pursue the mayoral race, amid public clashes with President Lee Jae-myung and government audits accusing his management of irregularities, which damaged his political standing and caused a sharp.
Reports highlight multiple Democratic Party lawmakers, including Kim Kyo-heung, announcing bids for Incheon mayor, signaling a crowded primary and potential vote splitting
Kim Kyo-heung drops to 4%6%
The crowded field and internal competition likely caused market doubts about Kim's ability to secure the nomination or win the general election.
Democratic Party surge in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon lifts DP‑aligned candidates, giving Kim a modest bump in support
Kim Kyo‑heung rises to 4%2%
Democratic Party surge in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon lifts DP‑aligned candidates, giving Kim a modest bump in support
News of a Democratic Party surge in Incheon and other key battlegrounds lifts the party’s overall profile but does not translate into support for Kim Kyo‑heung, keeping his odds
News of a Democratic Party surge in Incheon and other key battlegrounds lifts the party’s overall profile but does not translate into support for Kim Kyo‑heung, keeping his odds near the floor
Democratic Party surge lifts its mayoral candidates in polls, including Kim Kyo‑heung – A Chosun English report highlighted a nationwide swing toward the DP, briefly raising
Kim Kyo‑heung rises to 4%2%
Democratic Party surge lifts its mayoral candidates in polls, including Kim Kyo‑heung – A Chosun English report highlighted a nationwide swing toward the DP, briefly raising expectations for all its mayoral hopefuls and nudging Kim’s.
Democratic Party candidate surge in Incheon solidifies Park Chan-dae's lead over rivals
Park Nam-choon dips to 0%1%
Continued polling and party momentum for Park Chan-dae pushed Park Nam-choon's market
Market
Kim Kyo-heung jumps to 10%6%
This period likely corresponds to intensified campaigning or favorable internal party developments, temporarily boosting market optimism.
Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok asserts Incheon will surpass Busan in population and economy within three years
Yoo Jeong-bok rises to 8%1%
Yoo's optimistic public statements on Incheon's growth aimed to bolster his image amid declining support, causing a brief.
Democratic Party surge in Incheon contrasts with People Power Party shortage, boosting Park Chan-dae's prospects
Park Nam-choon jumps to 8%7%
A surge in Democratic Party support in Incheon briefly raised Park Nam-choon's
Kim Kyo-heung holds a publication ceremony with strong political endorsements from former Prime Minister Chung Se-kyun and other lawmakers
Kim Kyo-heung rises to 2%1%
The event with high-profile endorsements briefly increased confidence in Kim's candidacy, reflected in a small
Realmeter poll shows Kim Kyo‑heung trailing incumbent Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok in Incheon – A Realmeter survey cited in the same MK article placed Kim well behind the incumbent,
Kim Kyo‑heung rises to 2%1%
Realmeter poll shows Kim Kyo‑heung trailing incumbent Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok in Incheon – A Realmeter survey cited in the same MK article placed Kim well behind the incumbent, reinforcing market doubts and keeping his.
Political strategists highlight tight contests in Incheon mayoral race amid Seoul mayoral volatility
Park Nam-choon dips to 0%3%
Analysts pointed to the fierce competition in Incheon, with Park Chan-dae gaining momentum, further diminishing Park Nam-choon's perceived chances.
Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok indicted without detention on charges of violating the Public Official Election Act
Yoo Jeong-bok plunges to 18%31%
Mayor Yoo was formally indicted for allegedly mobilizing city officials for illegal campaign activities during the PPP presidential primary, casting doubt on his political future and re-election bid.
Kim Kyo‑heung officially announces his candidacy for Incheon mayor – The lawmaker’s formal launch was reported by MK, confirming his entry and immediately prompting traders to
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Kim Kyo‑heung officially announces his candidacy for Incheon mayor – The lawmaker’s formal launch was reported by MK, confirming his entry and immediately prompting traders to slash his win probability as the field widened .
Kim Kyo-heung officially declares candidacy for Incheon mayor, pledging to correct the previous mayor's lost four years and emphasizing economic and environmental development plans
Kim Kyo-heung plunges to 1%46%
This announcement marked Kim's formal entry into the race, initially boosting his profile but coinciding with a sharp market
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, pledging to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, pledging to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, vowing to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, vowing to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Lee Hak-jae appointed president of Incheon International Airport Corporation, signaling his potential candidacy for Incheon mayor
Lee Hak-jae, a former three-term lawmaker of the People Power Party, was appointed in June 2023 as president of Incheon International Airport Corporation and was seen as a strong candidate for the 2026 Incheon mayoral election, initially supporting his market.
Political insiders report Kim will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his run, prompting traders to anticipate a crowded field
Kim Kyo‑heung dips to 45%2%
Political insiders report Kim will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his run, prompting traders to anticipate a crowded field
Political insiders report Kim Kyo‑heung will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his mayoral run
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Political insiders report Kim Kyo‑heung will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his mayoral run
Park Chan-dae confirmed as Democratic Party candidate for Incheon mayor, emphasizing immigrant-friendly policies and close ties to the presidential office
Park Nam-choon plunges to 3%47%
Park Chan-dae's official confirmation as the Democratic Party candidate and his platform to make Incheon more immigrant-friendly marked a significant shift in the race, undermining Park Nam-choon's position and causing a sharp drop in his market
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