Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's dominant March 17 primary win, capturing 65.5% against three challengers, solidified his path to a general election rematch with Republican Tommy Hanson, who has lost to him in five prior cycles despite securing the GOP nomination with 71.9%. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, IL-05's North Side Chicago constituency—historically delivering Quigley margins over 30 points—underpins trader consensus implying 93.5% Democratic odds, bolstered by his incumbency, fundraising superiority, and absence of recent controversies. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, candidate health issues, or extraordinary national GOP wave before the November 3 ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,382 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$1,470 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's dominant March 17 primary win, capturing 65.5% against three challengers, solidified his path to a general election rematch with Republican Tommy Hanson, who has lost to him in five prior cycles despite securing the GOP nomination with 71.9%. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, IL-05's North Side Chicago constituency—historically delivering Quigley margins over 30 points—underpins trader consensus implying 93.5% Democratic odds, bolstered by his incumbency, fundraising superiority, and absence of recent controversies. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, candidate health issues, or extraordinary national GOP wave before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,852End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's dominant March 17 primary win, capturing 65.5% against three challengers, solidified his path to a general election rematch with Republican Tommy Hanson, who has lost to him in five prior cycles despite securing the GOP nomination with 71.9%. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, IL-05's North Side Chicago constituency—historically delivering Quigley margins over 30 points—underpins trader consensus implying 93.5% Democratic odds, bolstered by his incumbency, fundraising superiority, and absence of recent controversies. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, candidate health issues, or extraordinary national GOP wave before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,852End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's dominant March 17 primary win, capturing 65.5% against three challengers, solidified his path to a general election rematch with Republican Tommy Hanson, who has lost to him in five prior cycles despite securing the GOP nomination with 71.9%. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, IL-05's North Side Chicago constituency—historically delivering Quigley margins over 30 points—underpins trader consensus implying 93.5% Democratic odds, bolstered by his incumbency, fundraising superiority, and absence of recent controversies. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, candidate health issues, or extraordinary national GOP wave before the November 3 ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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