Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate Istanbul's June 15 maximum temperature most likely peaking at 28–30°C under typical early-summer synoptic conditions featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. These runs show tight clustering around this range, with historical June averages near 26–27°C providing context for the modest positive anomaly. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning combined probability above 80% to 28–30°C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to extremes below 27°C or above 31°C, reflecting low model spread and absence of signals for stronger heat advection or blocking patterns. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine land-sea breeze influences near the Bosphorus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on June 15?
29°C 36%
28°C 24%
30°C 24%
27°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 jun 2026
26°C or below
3%
27°C
8%
28°C
24%
29°C
36%
30°C
24%
31°C
8%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
28°C 24%
30°C 24%
27°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 jun 2026
26°C or below
$246 Vol.
3%
27°C
$446 Vol.
8%
28°C
$329 Vol.
24%
29°C
$393 Vol.
36%
30°C
$627 Vol.
24%
31°C
$553 Vol.
8%
32°C
$1,160 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$300 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,064 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$516 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$334 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate Istanbul's June 15 maximum temperature most likely peaking at 28–30°C under typical early-summer synoptic conditions featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. These runs show tight clustering around this range, with historical June averages near 26–27°C providing context for the modest positive anomaly. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning combined probability above 80% to 28–30°C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to extremes below 27°C or above 31°C, reflecting low model spread and absence of signals for stronger heat advection or blocking patterns. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine land-sea breeze influences near the Bosphorus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$5,968Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate Istanbul's June 15 maximum temperature most likely peaking at 28–30°C under typical early-summer synoptic conditions featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. These runs show tight clustering around this range, with historical June averages near 26–27°C providing context for the modest positive anomaly. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning combined probability above 80% to 28–30°C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to extremes below 27°C or above 31°C, reflecting low model spread and absence of signals for stronger heat advection or blocking patterns. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine land-sea breeze influences near the Bosphorus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,968Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major global models, including ECMWF and GFS, indicate Istanbul's June 15 maximum temperature most likely peaking at 28–30°C under typical early-summer synoptic conditions featuring moderate southerly flow and limited cloud cover. These runs show tight clustering around this range, with historical June averages near 26–27°C providing context for the modest positive anomaly. Market-implied odds align closely, assigning combined probability above 80% to 28–30°C outcomes while assigning minimal weight to extremes below 27°C or above 31°C, reflecting low model spread and absence of signals for stronger heat advection or blocking patterns. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 12–24 hours could refine land-sea breeze influences near the Bosphorus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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