Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 74.5% implied probability to hold Florida's 16th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Cook PVI of R+7 and history of double-digit Republican margins—Vern Buchanan won 59.5% in 2024 and 62.1% in 2022 before announcing his retirement on January 27, 2026, opening the seat. A crowded GOP primary features Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters alongside John Peters, Eddie Speir, and Ed Pope, who have raised early funds, while Democrats field Jonathan Harris, Tamika Lyles, Glenn Pearson, and repeat challenger Jan Schneider. Absent polls, the rating as Solid Republican by Cook Political Report underpins the market's positioning ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-16 House Election Winner
FL-16 House Election Winner
$14,352 Vol.
$14,352 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
72%
Democratic Party
23%
$14,352 Vol.
$14,352 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,704 Vol.
72%
Democratic Party
$8,648 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 74.5% implied probability to hold Florida's 16th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Cook PVI of R+7 and history of double-digit Republican margins—Vern Buchanan won 59.5% in 2024 and 62.1% in 2022 before announcing his retirement on January 27, 2026, opening the seat. A crowded GOP primary features Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters alongside John Peters, Eddie Speir, and Ed Pope, who have raised early funds, while Democrats field Jonathan Harris, Tamika Lyles, Glenn Pearson, and repeat challenger Jan Schneider. Absent polls, the rating as Solid Republican by Cook Political Report underpins the market's positioning ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$14,352End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 74.5% implied probability to hold Florida's 16th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Cook PVI of R+7 and history of double-digit Republican margins—Vern Buchanan won 59.5% in 2024 and 62.1% in 2022 before announcing his retirement on January 27, 2026, opening the seat. A crowded GOP primary features Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters alongside John Peters, Eddie Speir, and Ed Pope, who have raised early funds, while Democrats field Jonathan Harris, Tamika Lyles, Glenn Pearson, and repeat challenger Jan Schneider. Absent polls, the rating as Solid Republican by Cook Political Report underpins the market's positioning ahead of the August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,352End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 74.5% implied probability to hold Florida's 16th Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Cook PVI of R+7 and history of double-digit Republican margins—Vern Buchanan won 59.5% in 2024 and 62.1% in 2022 before announcing his retirement on January 27, 2026, opening the seat. A crowded GOP primary features Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters alongside John Peters, Eddie Speir, and Ed Pope, who have raised early funds, while Democrats field Jonathan Harris, Tamika Lyles, Glenn Pearson, and repeat challenger Jan Schneider. Absent polls, the rating as Solid Republican by Cook Political Report underpins the market's positioning ahead of the August 18 primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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