The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.42% as of April 29, 2026—up from 4.31% a week prior—following the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as March CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy index spike. This sticky inflation, coupled with resilient labor market conditions, has diminished market-implied odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts, pushing yields above the long-term average of 4.25% and reflecting trader consensus for a shallower easing path through 2026. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where cooler data could pressure yields lower toward 4%, while upside inflation risks may anchor them higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$213,479 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3,9%
57%
3,8%
47%
3,7%
31%
3,6%
30%
3,5%
17%
3,0%
12%
2,0%
11%
1,0%
4%
$213,479 Vol.
3,9%
$40,093 Vol.
57%
3,8%
$39,138 Vol.
47%
3,7%
$26,300 Vol.
31%
3,6%
$4,723 Vol.
30%
3,5%
$31,386 Vol.
17%
3,0%
$383 Vol.
12%
2,0%
$341 Vol.
11%
1,0%
$39,356 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.42% as of April 29, 2026—up from 4.31% a week prior—following the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as March CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy index spike. This sticky inflation, coupled with resilient labor market conditions, has diminished market-implied odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts, pushing yields above the long-term average of 4.25% and reflecting trader consensus for a shallower easing path through 2026. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where cooler data could pressure yields lower toward 4%, while upside inflation risks may anchor them higher.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volumen
$213,479Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.42% as of April 29, 2026—up from 4.31% a week prior—following the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as March CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy index spike. This sticky inflation, coupled with resilient labor market conditions, has diminished market-implied odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts, pushing yields above the long-term average of 4.25% and reflecting trader consensus for a shallower easing path through 2026. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where cooler data could pressure yields lower toward 4%, while upside inflation risks may anchor them higher.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$213,479Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.42% as of April 29, 2026—up from 4.31% a week prior—following the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, as March CPI inflation accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy index spike. This sticky inflation, coupled with resilient labor market conditions, has diminished market-implied odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts, pushing yields above the long-term average of 4.25% and reflecting trader consensus for a shallower easing path through 2026. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where cooler data could pressure yields lower toward 4%, while upside inflation risks may anchor them higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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