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Finanzas·Jerome Powell

¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?
Finanzas·Jerome Powell

¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

$193,961 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$193,961 Vol.

Polymarket

4.5%

$29,135 Vol.

82%

4,6%

$35,262 Vol.

44%

4,8%

$45,843 Vol.

26%

5,0%

$41,624 Vol.

16%

5,2%

$8,528 Vol.

10%

5,5%

$1,428 Vol.

12%

5,7%

$3,119 Vol.

11%

6,0%

$2,056 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.4% following the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February, signaling persistent price pressures and labor market resilience. This marks the highest dissent in recent FOMC history, with Chair Powell's term winding down adding policy uncertainty. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution on peak yields before 2027, driven by elevated fiscal deficits and oil price gains, while forecasts like Trading Economics project a gradual decline toward 4.1% by Q1 2027 if disinflation resumes. Key catalysts include April CPI data due mid-May and the June FOMC meeting, where rate cut odds hinge on incoming economic releases.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$193,961
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.4% following the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, up sharply from 2.4% in February, signaling persistent price pressures and labor market resilience. This marks the highest dissent in recent FOMC history, with Chair Powell's term winding down adding policy uncertainty. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution on peak yields before 2027, driven by elevated fiscal deficits and oil price gains, while forecasts like Trading Economics project a gradual decline toward 4.1% by Q1 2027 if disinflation resumes. Key catalysts include April CPI data due mid-May and the June FOMC meeting, where rate cut odds hinge on incoming economic releases.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$193,961
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 10 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "4,3%" con 100%, seguido de "4,4%" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?" ha generado $194K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?", explora los 10 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?" es "4,3%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "4,4%" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.