Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 tweets from May 14–16 (50.5% implied probability), with 40–64 a close second at 38.5%, reflecting his recent moderation to 15–23 posts per day amid quieter cycles—highlighted by just 46 total in the May 11–13 window per XTracker data. This shift follows higher volumes earlier in May (e.g., 68 on May 1), but lacks event-driven spikes from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE announcements that typically fuel viral engagement surges. Weekend dynamics (May 16 Saturday) often see dips, though breaking news or cultural controversies like his recent Christopher Nolan casting critiques could swing volumes higher; traders eye XTracker for real-time tracking ahead of the May 16 ET close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<40 51%
40-64 37%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$204,300 Vol.
$204,300 Vol.
May 16, 2026
<40
51%
40-64
37%
65-89
9%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 51%
40-64 37%
65-89 9%
90-114 2.1%
$204,300 Vol.
$204,300 Vol.
May 16, 2026
<40
$41,132 Vol.
51%
40-64
$12,940 Vol.
37%
65-89
$46,861 Vol.
9%
90-114
$11,661 Vol.
2%
115-139
$10,065 Vol.
1%
140-164
$9,196 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$19,384 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$16,078 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$15,766 Vol.
<1%
240+
$21,216 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 tweets from May 14–16 (50.5% implied probability), with 40–64 a close second at 38.5%, reflecting his recent moderation to 15–23 posts per day amid quieter cycles—highlighted by just 46 total in the May 11–13 window per XTracker data. This shift follows higher volumes earlier in May (e.g., 68 on May 1), but lacks event-driven spikes from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE announcements that typically fuel viral engagement surges. Weekend dynamics (May 16 Saturday) often see dips, though breaking news or cultural controversies like his recent Christopher Nolan casting critiques could swing volumes higher; traders eye XTracker for real-time tracking ahead of the May 16 ET close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$204,300End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 tweets from May 14–16 (50.5% implied probability), with 40–64 a close second at 38.5%, reflecting his recent moderation to 15–23 posts per day amid quieter cycles—highlighted by just 46 total in the May 11–13 window per XTracker data. This shift follows higher volumes earlier in May (e.g., 68 on May 1), but lacks event-driven spikes from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE announcements that typically fuel viral engagement surges. Weekend dynamics (May 16 Saturday) often see dips, though breaking news or cultural controversies like his recent Christopher Nolan casting critiques could swing volumes higher; traders eye XTracker for real-time tracking ahead of the May 16 ET close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 14 12:00 PM ET to May 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$204,300End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting under 40 tweets from May 14–16 (50.5% implied probability), with 40–64 a close second at 38.5%, reflecting his recent moderation to 15–23 posts per day amid quieter cycles—highlighted by just 46 total in the May 11–13 window per XTracker data. This shift follows higher volumes earlier in May (e.g., 68 on May 1), but lacks event-driven spikes from Tesla, SpaceX, or DOGE announcements that typically fuel viral engagement surges. Weekend dynamics (May 16 Saturday) often see dips, though breaking news or cultural controversies like his recent Christopher Nolan casting critiques could swing volumes higher; traders eye XTracker for real-time tracking ahead of the May 16 ET close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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