Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability on Elon Musk posting 220-239 times from April 21-28, driven by real-time trackers like XTracker confirming a final tally of 227 posts on his @elonmusk account—aligning perfectly with his steady cadence of roughly 30 posts per day amid viral commentary on politics, Tesla updates, and memes. This week's unremarkable rhythm, without major events spiking or suppressing his signature high-volume X engagement, solidifies the frontrunner after the period closed on April 28. Realistic upsets would require rare resolution disputes, such as excluding replies or reposts from the official count, or an unreported late surge exceeding 239, though aggregated trader capital deems these negligible risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated220-239 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$9,748,236 Vol.
$9,748,236 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
Yes
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
220-239 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$9,748,236 Vol.
$9,748,236 Vol.
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
Yes
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500-519
No
520-539
No
540-559
No
560-579
No
580+
No
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability on Elon Musk posting 220-239 times from April 21-28, driven by real-time trackers like XTracker confirming a final tally of 227 posts on his @elonmusk account—aligning perfectly with his steady cadence of roughly 30 posts per day amid viral commentary on politics, Tesla updates, and memes. This week's unremarkable rhythm, without major events spiking or suppressing his signature high-volume X engagement, solidifies the frontrunner after the period closed on April 28. Realistic upsets would require rare resolution disputes, such as excluding replies or reposts from the official count, or an unreported late surge exceeding 239, though aggregated trader capital deems these negligible risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions