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icon for Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

icon for Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$97 Vol.

Polymarket

Drake

$102 Vol.

88%

Olivia Rodrigo

$0 Vol.

44%

Kanye West

$0 Vol.

42%

Taylor Swift

$0 Vol.

42%

Bruno Mars

$0 Vol.

42%

Alex Warren

$0 Vol.

42%

Don Toliver

$0 Vol.

42%

Olivia Dean

$0 Vol.

41%

Noah Kahan

$0 Vol.

36%

Bad Bunny

$0 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.Olivia Rodrigo's "Drop Dead" leads early predictions for a blockbuster #1 debut on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated May 2, fueled by massive presale buzz and streaming surges in the tracking week of April 25–May 1, positioning her as a frontrunner for an early May number one. Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" clings to momentum after five weeks at #1 through late April, while Bruno Mars' "I Just Might" holds top-five traction via radio airplay. Competition heats up mid-month with Chris Brown's B.R.O.W.N. album (May 8) and Drake's Iceman (May 15), both primed for sales-driven spikes; track midweek updates from Talk of the Charts for shifts before May 30 chart lock. Hot 100 #1s blend streaming, sales, and airplay, with surprise viral moments often upending forecasts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Volume
$97
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 6:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.Olivia Rodrigo's "Drop Dead" leads early predictions for a blockbuster #1 debut on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated May 2, fueled by massive presale buzz and streaming surges in the tracking week of April 25–May 1, positioning her as a frontrunner for an early May number one. Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" clings to momentum after five weeks at #1 through late April, while Bruno Mars' "I Just Might" holds top-five traction via radio airplay. Competition heats up mid-month with Chris Brown's B.R.O.W.N. album (May 8) and Drake's Iceman (May 15), both primed for sales-driven spikes; track midweek updates from Talk of the Charts for shifts before May 30 chart lock. Hot 100 #1s blend streaming, sales, and airplay, with surprise viral moments often upending forecasts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Volume
$97
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 6:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Drake" at 88%, followed by "Olivia Rodrigo" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" is "Drake" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Olivia Rodrigo" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.