**The primary driver of the 64.5% "No" probability is the outright failure of SB26-097 (Decriminalize Adult Commercial Sexual Activity) during the 2026 regular session.** Introduced in mid-February by Democratic Sen. Nick Hinrichsen and three other Democrats, the measure would have repealed criminal penalties for prostitution, solicitation, patronizing, and related offenses while preempting local ordinances. It was referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee but never received a hearing. By early March, the sponsor publicly stated the bill lacked the votes to advance and moved to postpone it indefinitely. The committee formally postponed the measure on March 11. The General Assembly adjourned sine die on May 13, 2026, ending any realistic pathway for the bill to become law this year. Strong opposition from law enforcement, county sheriffs, faith-based groups, and Republican legislators—combined with public pressure—prevented committee consideration and floor action. No subsequent legislative vehicle or special session has emerged to revive the proposal. Traders therefore price the outcome as unlikely, consistent with the bill’s procedural death before the close of the only session in which it could have taken effect in 2026.