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icon for Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?
Politics·Columbia

Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?

icon for Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?
Politics·Columbia

Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?

54-57% 43%

60%+ 27%

48-51% 25%

51-54% 21%

Polymarket
NEW

54-57% 43%

60%+ 27%

48-51% 25%

51-54% 21%

Polymarket
NEW

<48%

$16 Vol.

17%

48-51%

$0 Vol.

25%

51-54%

$0 Vol.

21%

54-57%

$6 Vol.

43%

57-60%

$0 Vol.

19%

60%+

$54 Vol.

27%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Colombia's May 31 presidential election first-round turnout clusters tightly in the 48-60% range, reflecting uncertainty between historical precedents around 53-55% (as in 2018 and 2022) and the recent 48% legislative turnout on March 8 amid security concerns from over 60 political killings. The latest Invamer poll (April 15-24) shows high participation intent—56.5% definitely voting, 20.1% probably—fueled by a competitive race where leftist Iván Cepeda leads at 44% over right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (22%) and center-right Paloma Valencia (20%), likely spurring mobilization in battleground areas. Final debates, violence flare-ups, or weather could tip probabilities toward higher or lower bins.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$76
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Colombia's May 31 presidential election first-round turnout clusters tightly in the 48-60% range, reflecting uncertainty between historical precedents around 53-55% (as in 2018 and 2022) and the recent 48% legislative turnout on March 8 amid security concerns from over 60 political killings. The latest Invamer poll (April 15-24) shows high participation intent—56.5% definitely voting, 20.1% probably—fueled by a competitive race where leftist Iván Cepeda leads at 44% over right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella (22%) and center-right Paloma Valencia (20%), likely spurring mobilization in battleground areas. Final debates, violence flare-ups, or weather could tip probabilities toward higher or lower bins.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$76
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "54-57%" at 43%, followed by "60%+" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?" is "54-57%" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "60%+" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.