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Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place

icon for Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place

Abelardo de la Espriella 49%

Paloma Valencia 40%

Iván Cepeda Castro 6.0%

Gustavo Bolívar 5.2%

Polymarket

$38,991 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella 49%

Paloma Valencia 40%

Iván Cepeda Castro 6.0%

Gustavo Bolívar 5.2%

Polymarket

$38,991 Vol.

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$3,072 Vol.

49%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$2,879 Vol.

40%

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$983 Vol.

6%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar

Gustavo Bolívar

$2,134 Vol.

5%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo

Juan Daniel Oviedo

$2,148 Vol.

1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras

Germán Vargas Lleras

$2,042 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vicky Dávila

Vicky Dávila

$2,383 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán

Juan Manuel Galán

$2,069 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo

Sergio Fajardo

$2,285 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,175 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo

Luis Gilberto Murillo

$2,113 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$2,953 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$2,155 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$2,135 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López

Claudia López

$3,129 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$2,495 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez

David Luna Sánchez

$2,010 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, such as AtlasIntel's late-April survey showing Iván Cepeda leading the first round at 40.8%, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 29.4% and Paloma Valencia at 24.8%, alongside GAD3's April 20-22 data with Cepeda at 38%, de la Espriella at 22%, and Valencia at 14%, drive trader consensus favoring de la Espriella for second place amid right-wing fragmentation. The March legislative elections produced a divided Congress, strengthening Cepeda's Pacto Histórico coalition while exposing splits between de la Espriella's independent populist focus on crime and corruption and Valencia's Centro Democrático party infrastructure. With the May 31 first round looming, upcoming debates, endorsements, or vote consolidation could separate the closely matched contenders.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$38,991
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, such as AtlasIntel's late-April survey showing Iván Cepeda leading the first round at 40.8%, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 29.4% and Paloma Valencia at 24.8%, alongside GAD3's April 20-22 data with Cepeda at 38%, de la Espriella at 22%, and Valencia at 14%, drive trader consensus favoring de la Espriella for second place amid right-wing fragmentation. The March legislative elections produced a divided Congress, strengthening Cepeda's Pacto Histórico coalition while exposing splits between de la Espriella's independent populist focus on crime and corruption and Valencia's Centro Democrático party infrastructure. With the May 31 first round looming, upcoming debates, endorsements, or vote consolidation could separate the closely matched contenders.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$38,991
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 49%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place" has generated $39K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place" is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.