Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's strong position in a Solid Democratic district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing Democratic-leaning San Jose suburbs. Lofgren's February endorsement by the California Democratic Party and lack of high-profile challengers bolster her frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Republican Shane Lewis and others pose limited threats based on historical voting patterns. While odds reflect structural incumbency advantages, scenarios like a surprise GOP primary advance, Lofgren health issues at age 77, scandal, or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-18 House Election Winner
CA-18 House Election Winner
$31,134 Vol.
$31,134 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
$31,134 Vol.
$31,134 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,215 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$14,918 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's strong position in a Solid Democratic district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing Democratic-leaning San Jose suburbs. Lofgren's February endorsement by the California Democratic Party and lack of high-profile challengers bolster her frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Republican Shane Lewis and others pose limited threats based on historical voting patterns. While odds reflect structural incumbency advantages, scenarios like a surprise GOP primary advance, Lofgren health issues at age 77, scandal, or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$31,134End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's strong position in a Solid Democratic district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing Democratic-leaning San Jose suburbs. Lofgren's February endorsement by the California Democratic Party and lack of high-profile challengers bolster her frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Republican Shane Lewis and others pose limited threats based on historical voting patterns. While odds reflect structural incumbency advantages, scenarios like a surprise GOP primary advance, Lofgren health issues at age 77, scandal, or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,134End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Zoe Lofgren's strong position in a Solid Democratic district with a D+16 Cook Partisan Voting Index, encompassing Democratic-leaning San Jose suburbs. Lofgren's February endorsement by the California Democratic Party and lack of high-profile challengers bolster her frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Republican Shane Lewis and others pose limited threats based on historical voting patterns. While odds reflect structural incumbency advantages, scenarios like a surprise GOP primary advance, Lofgren health issues at age 77, scandal, or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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