Supporters of the California One-Time Wealth Tax Initiative submitted over 1.5 million voter signatures this week—more than double the roughly 547,000 valid signatures required by the July 2026 deadline—pushing trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of ballot qualification for November. Filed with the Attorney General in late 2025 by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, the measure proposes a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' net worth exceeding $1.1 billion to offset federal Medicaid and food assistance cuts totaling about $100 billion. Governor Gavin Newsom opposes the proposal amid concerns over capital flight, while billionaire-backed counter-initiatives funded by figures like Sergey Brin have also secured sufficient signatures. The Secretary of State will verify submissions over coming weeks, with historical precedents favoring qualification for initiatives exceeding signature thresholds by such margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$124,329 Vol.
$124,329 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
$124,329 Vol.
$124,329 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Supporters of the California One-Time Wealth Tax Initiative submitted over 1.5 million voter signatures this week—more than double the roughly 547,000 valid signatures required by the July 2026 deadline—pushing trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of ballot qualification for November. Filed with the Attorney General in late 2025 by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, the measure proposes a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' net worth exceeding $1.1 billion to offset federal Medicaid and food assistance cuts totaling about $100 billion. Governor Gavin Newsom opposes the proposal amid concerns over capital flight, while billionaire-backed counter-initiatives funded by figures like Sergey Brin have also secured sufficient signatures. The Secretary of State will verify submissions over coming weeks, with historical precedents favoring qualification for initiatives exceeding signature thresholds by such margins.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$124,329End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Supporters of the California One-Time Wealth Tax Initiative submitted over 1.5 million voter signatures this week—more than double the roughly 547,000 valid signatures required by the July 2026 deadline—pushing trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of ballot qualification for November. Filed with the Attorney General in late 2025 by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, the measure proposes a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' net worth exceeding $1.1 billion to offset federal Medicaid and food assistance cuts totaling about $100 billion. Governor Gavin Newsom opposes the proposal amid concerns over capital flight, while billionaire-backed counter-initiatives funded by figures like Sergey Brin have also secured sufficient signatures. The Secretary of State will verify submissions over coming weeks, with historical precedents favoring qualification for initiatives exceeding signature thresholds by such margins.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$124,329End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supporters of the California One-Time Wealth Tax Initiative submitted over 1.5 million voter signatures this week—more than double the roughly 547,000 valid signatures required by the July 2026 deadline—pushing trader consensus to an 86% implied probability of ballot qualification for November. Filed with the Attorney General in late 2025 by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, the measure proposes a one-time 5% tax on billionaires' net worth exceeding $1.1 billion to offset federal Medicaid and food assistance cuts totaling about $100 billion. Governor Gavin Newsom opposes the proposal amid concerns over capital flight, while billionaire-backed counter-initiatives funded by figures like Sergey Brin have also secured sufficient signatures. The Secretary of State will verify submissions over coming weeks, with historical precedents favoring qualification for initiatives exceeding signature thresholds by such margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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