Exit polls released in the past day following the April 9 single-phase Assam Legislative Assembly election overwhelmingly project a landslide victory for the incumbent BJP-led NDA, with projections like Today's Chanakya forecasting 102±9 seats out of 126—far exceeding the 64-seat majority threshold—driving trader consensus to price BJP at near-certainty. High voter turnout above 85% and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong incumbency since 2021, bolstered by alliances including AGP and UPPL, have solidified this lead amid fragmented opposition from INC and others. Results await counting on May 4; rare disruptions like widespread discrepancies, legal challenges, or delays could shift outcomes, though historical exit poll accuracy in Assam supports the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAssam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
BJP 97.7%
INC 2.4%
AITC <1%
CPI(M) <1%
$198,577 Vol.
$198,577 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
98%
INC
2%
AITC
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
NCP
<1%
AIUDF
<1%
BPF
<1%
CPI
<1%
NPEP
<1%
AGP
<1%
BJP 97.7%
INC 2.4%
AITC <1%
CPI(M) <1%
$198,577 Vol.
$198,577 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
$59,175 Vol.
98%
INC
$22,176 Vol.
2%
AITC
$18,475 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$14,394 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$12,232 Vol.
<1%
AIUDF
$12,648 Vol.
<1%
BPF
$17,496 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$17,186 Vol.
<1%
NPEP
$12,178 Vol.
<1%
AGP
$12,617 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Exit polls released in the past day following the April 9 single-phase Assam Legislative Assembly election overwhelmingly project a landslide victory for the incumbent BJP-led NDA, with projections like Today's Chanakya forecasting 102±9 seats out of 126—far exceeding the 64-seat majority threshold—driving trader consensus to price BJP at near-certainty. High voter turnout above 85% and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong incumbency since 2021, bolstered by alliances including AGP and UPPL, have solidified this lead amid fragmented opposition from INC and others. Results await counting on May 4; rare disruptions like widespread discrepancies, legal challenges, or delays could shift outcomes, though historical exit poll accuracy in Assam supports the current pricing.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$198,577End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Exit polls released in the past day following the April 9 single-phase Assam Legislative Assembly election overwhelmingly project a landslide victory for the incumbent BJP-led NDA, with projections like Today's Chanakya forecasting 102±9 seats out of 126—far exceeding the 64-seat majority threshold—driving trader consensus to price BJP at near-certainty. High voter turnout above 85% and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong incumbency since 2021, bolstered by alliances including AGP and UPPL, have solidified this lead amid fragmented opposition from INC and others. Results await counting on May 4; rare disruptions like widespread discrepancies, legal challenges, or delays could shift outcomes, though historical exit poll accuracy in Assam supports the current pricing.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Volume
$198,577End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Exit polls released in the past day following the April 9 single-phase Assam Legislative Assembly election overwhelmingly project a landslide victory for the incumbent BJP-led NDA, with projections like Today's Chanakya forecasting 102±9 seats out of 126—far exceeding the 64-seat majority threshold—driving trader consensus to price BJP at near-certainty. High voter turnout above 85% and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's strong incumbency since 2021, bolstered by alliances including AGP and UPPL, have solidified this lead amid fragmented opposition from INC and others. Results await counting on May 4; rare disruptions like widespread discrepancies, legal challenges, or delays could shift outcomes, though historical exit poll accuracy in Assam supports the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
87%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
72%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
51%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions