Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability on no EU withdrawal before 2027, reflecting sustained high public support for membership—over 70% across member states per recent surveys—with Eurosceptic sentiment stable but insufficient to drive action. Post-Brexit economic fallout has deterred exits, as seen in moderated stances from leaders like Italy's Meloni and France's Le Pen, who dropped Frexit pledges. In Poland, opposition PiS rhetoric targets EU emissions trading rather than full Polexit, where support hovers at 20-25% amid pro-EU government control. Hungary's Orbán blocks Ukraine's accession but affirms commitment. No referendums, Article 50 invocations, or snap elections signal imminent departures, underscoring structural barriers like parliamentary supermajorities and coalition dynamics. Late-breaking scandals or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though none have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
$126,657 Vol.
$126,657 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$126,657 Vol.
$126,657 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability on no EU withdrawal before 2027, reflecting sustained high public support for membership—over 70% across member states per recent surveys—with Eurosceptic sentiment stable but insufficient to drive action. Post-Brexit economic fallout has deterred exits, as seen in moderated stances from leaders like Italy's Meloni and France's Le Pen, who dropped Frexit pledges. In Poland, opposition PiS rhetoric targets EU emissions trading rather than full Polexit, where support hovers at 20-25% amid pro-EU government control. Hungary's Orbán blocks Ukraine's accession but affirms commitment. No referendums, Article 50 invocations, or snap elections signal imminent departures, underscoring structural barriers like parliamentary supermajorities and coalition dynamics. Late-breaking scandals or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though none have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$126,657End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability on no EU withdrawal before 2027, reflecting sustained high public support for membership—over 70% across member states per recent surveys—with Eurosceptic sentiment stable but insufficient to drive action. Post-Brexit economic fallout has deterred exits, as seen in moderated stances from leaders like Italy's Meloni and France's Le Pen, who dropped Frexit pledges. In Poland, opposition PiS rhetoric targets EU emissions trading rather than full Polexit, where support hovers at 20-25% amid pro-EU government control. Hungary's Orbán blocks Ukraine's accession but affirms commitment. No referendums, Article 50 invocations, or snap elections signal imminent departures, underscoring structural barriers like parliamentary supermajorities and coalition dynamics. Late-breaking scandals or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though none have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$126,657End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 92.5% implied probability on no EU withdrawal before 2027, reflecting sustained high public support for membership—over 70% across member states per recent surveys—with Eurosceptic sentiment stable but insufficient to drive action. Post-Brexit economic fallout has deterred exits, as seen in moderated stances from leaders like Italy's Meloni and France's Le Pen, who dropped Frexit pledges. In Poland, opposition PiS rhetoric targets EU emissions trading rather than full Polexit, where support hovers at 20-25% amid pro-EU government control. Hungary's Orbán blocks Ukraine's accession but affirms commitment. No referendums, Article 50 invocations, or snap elections signal imminent departures, underscoring structural barriers like parliamentary supermajorities and coalition dynamics. Late-breaking scandals or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though none have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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