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Elections·Spain

Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?

icon for Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
Elections·Spain

Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?

57% chance
Polymarket
NEW
57% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusia's regional election set for May 17, trader consensus at 50.5% for a PP absolute majority reflects tight polling averages projecting the party 54-57 seats in the 109-seat parliament, hovering on the 55-seat threshold. Incumbent president Juanma Moreno benefits from PSOE's decline to historic lows around 27-29 seats under María Jesús Montero, alongside Vox's variable 14-16 seats that could siphon right-wing votes. Recent surveys, including DatosRTVE on April 30 showing PP exactly at 55, and CIS data from late April, underscore this knife-edge balance amid economic stability under PP governance. Campaign launch this week, potential debates, turnout in battleground provinces like Seville and Malaga, or Vox surges could tip probabilities either way.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volume
$1,271
End Date
May 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).With Andalusia's regional election set for May 17, trader consensus at 50.5% for a PP absolute majority reflects tight polling averages projecting the party 54-57 seats in the 109-seat parliament, hovering on the 55-seat threshold. Incumbent president Juanma Moreno benefits from PSOE's decline to historic lows around 27-29 seats under María Jesús Montero, alongside Vox's variable 14-16 seats that could siphon right-wing votes. Recent surveys, including DatosRTVE on April 30 showing PP exactly at 55, and CIS data from late April, underscore this knife-edge balance amid economic stability under PP governance. Campaign launch this week, potential debates, turnout in battleground provinces like Seville and Malaga, or Vox surges could tip probabilities either way.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Volume
$1,271
End Date
May 17, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 56% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 56¢, the market collectively assigns a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?" is 56% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.