Recent MRP models from YouGov and Electoral Calculus, based on late April 2026 polling, project Reform UK capturing the most council seats nationwide across 136 English councils and over 5,000 seats up for grabs on May 7, driving trader consensus to price Reform at 96.7% implied probability. Reform leads vote shares at 24-30% nationally and in key regions like the West Midlands (30% vs. Labour's 21%), positioning it for 1,300-2,200 net gains amid Labour's historic collapse and Conservative shortfalls, with Greens surging but fragmented. Late developments, including Reform's extensive candidate slate (95%+ coverage) and momentum from prior by-elections, underpin this dominance. Potential challenges include turnout surges for incumbents, last-minute Reform scandals, or weather disruptions, though structural leads limit upset risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner
2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner
Reform 96.7%
Labour 1.8%
Green 1.5%
Conservative <1%
$148,572 Vol.
$148,572 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Reform
97%
Labour
2%
Green
2%
Conservative
1%
Liberal Democrats
<1%
Reform 96.7%
Labour 1.8%
Green 1.5%
Conservative <1%
$148,572 Vol.
$148,572 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Reform
$52,833 Vol.
97%
Labour
$24,645 Vol.
2%
Green
$46,958 Vol.
2%
Conservative
$13,490 Vol.
1%
Liberal Democrats
$10,646 Vol.
<1%
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Recent MRP models from YouGov and Electoral Calculus, based on late April 2026 polling, project Reform UK capturing the most council seats nationwide across 136 English councils and over 5,000 seats up for grabs on May 7, driving trader consensus to price Reform at 96.7% implied probability. Reform leads vote shares at 24-30% nationally and in key regions like the West Midlands (30% vs. Labour's 21%), positioning it for 1,300-2,200 net gains amid Labour's historic collapse and Conservative shortfalls, with Greens surging but fragmented. Late developments, including Reform's extensive candidate slate (95%+ coverage) and momentum from prior by-elections, underpin this dominance. Potential challenges include turnout surges for incumbents, last-minute Reform scandals, or weather disruptions, though structural leads limit upset risks.
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$148,572End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Recent MRP models from YouGov and Electoral Calculus, based on late April 2026 polling, project Reform UK capturing the most council seats nationwide across 136 English councils and over 5,000 seats up for grabs on May 7, driving trader consensus to price Reform at 96.7% implied probability. Reform leads vote shares at 24-30% nationally and in key regions like the West Midlands (30% vs. Labour's 21%), positioning it for 1,300-2,200 net gains amid Labour's historic collapse and Conservative shortfalls, with Greens surging but fragmented. Late developments, including Reform's extensive candidate slate (95%+ coverage) and momentum from prior by-elections, underpin this dominance. Potential challenges include turnout surges for incumbents, last-minute Reform scandals, or weather disruptions, though structural leads limit upset risks.
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils in the 2026 United Kingdom Local Elections.
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.
In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant council seat elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$148,572End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MRP models from YouGov and Electoral Calculus, based on late April 2026 polling, project Reform UK capturing the most council seats nationwide across 136 English councils and over 5,000 seats up for grabs on May 7, driving trader consensus to price Reform at 96.7% implied probability. Reform leads vote shares at 24-30% nationally and in key regions like the West Midlands (30% vs. Labour's 21%), positioning it for 1,300-2,200 net gains amid Labour's historic collapse and Conservative shortfalls, with Greens surging but fragmented. Late developments, including Reform's extensive candidate slate (95%+ coverage) and momentum from prior by-elections, underpin this dominance. Potential challenges include turnout surges for incumbents, last-minute Reform scandals, or weather disruptions, though structural leads limit upset risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
97%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
90%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
85%
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