Amid ongoing US-Iran tensions following the February 28 joint US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the 2026 Iran war, no country other than the United States or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as drone, missile, or air strikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A fragile ceasefire since April 8 has held without escalation from regional allies, who have limited responses to missile defense amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Recent US Central Command briefings to President Trump on potential further operations exclude broader coalition involvement, while NATO members including Germany voice opposition to offensive action. With the market resolving at midnight ET today, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to third-party strikes barring a late Iranian provocation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Otro país llevará a cabo una acción militar contra Irán por...?
¿Otro país llevará a cabo una acción militar contra Irán por...?
$2,200,179 Vol.
30 abr 2026
30 de abril
1%
$2,200,179 Vol.
30 de abril
$663,182 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing US-Iran tensions following the February 28 joint US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the 2026 Iran war, no country other than the United States or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as drone, missile, or air strikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A fragile ceasefire since April 8 has held without escalation from regional allies, who have limited responses to missile defense amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Recent US Central Command briefings to President Trump on potential further operations exclude broader coalition involvement, while NATO members including Germany voice opposition to offensive action. With the market resolving at midnight ET today, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to third-party strikes barring a late Iranian provocation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,200,179Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing US-Iran tensions following the February 28 joint US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the 2026 Iran war, no country other than the United States or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as drone, missile, or air strikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A fragile ceasefire since April 8 has held without escalation from regional allies, who have limited responses to missile defense amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Recent US Central Command briefings to President Trump on potential further operations exclude broader coalition involvement, while NATO members including Germany voice opposition to offensive action. With the market resolving at midnight ET today, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to third-party strikes barring a late Iranian provocation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,200,179Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing US-Iran tensions following the February 28 joint US-Israeli airstrikes that sparked the 2026 Iran war, no country other than the United States or Israel has conducted qualifying military action—defined as drone, missile, or air strikes impacting Iranian soil or embassies—despite Iranian missile barrages on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A fragile ceasefire since April 8 has held without escalation from regional allies, who have limited responses to missile defense amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Recent US Central Command briefings to President Trump on potential further operations exclude broader coalition involvement, while NATO members including Germany voice opposition to offensive action. With the market resolving at midnight ET today, trader consensus reflects significant barriers to third-party strikes barring a late Iranian provocation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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