This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, commands 99.3% trader consensus for Senate confirmation as Fed Chair following the Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line approval on April 29, clearing a key hurdle ahead of a full Senate floor vote. This surge reflects the GOP Senate majority's backing, Sen. Thom Tillis lifting his hold after the DOJ ended its probe into Jerome Powell, and expected crossover support from Sen. John Fetterman, despite Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren during April hearings. With Powell's term expiring May 15, momentum favors swift confirmation; realistic challenges include a filibuster requiring 60-vote cloture, unforeseen scandals, or nominee withdrawal.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, commands 99.3% trader consensus for Senate confirmation as Fed Chair following the Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line approval on April 29, clearing a key hurdle ahead of a full Senate floor vote. This surge reflects the GOP Senate majority's backing, Sen. Thom Tillis lifting his hold after the DOJ ended its probe into Jerome Powell, and expected crossover support from Sen. John Fetterman, despite Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren during April hearings. With Powell's term expiring May 15, momentum favors swift confirmation; realistic challenges include a filibuster requiring 60-vote cloture, unforeseen scandals, or nominee withdrawal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 29 2026
Fed meeting confirms Jerome Powell will likely step down as Chair in May 2026;
no indication of Bowman as successor, keeping her market
Apr 26 2026
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee
Kevin Warsh jumps to 99%5%
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee approval and a full Senate vote
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets about his suitability and advanced his confirmation prospects
Mar 31 2026
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair confirmation news
Mar 18 2026
Reports emerge that Warsh’s nomination is stalled due to Senate hold by Sen.
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Thom Tillis and missing financial disclosure paperwork, raising uncertainty about the confirmation timeline and causing market hesitation
Mar 17 2026
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Michelle Bowman rises to 3%1%
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Mar 12 2026
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Michelle Bowman rises to 2%2%
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Mar 4 2026
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political opposition from Senator Thom Tillis who vowed to block nominees until the DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, commands 99.3% trader consensus for Senate confirmation as Fed Chair following the Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line approval on April 29, clearing a key hurdle ahead of a full Senate floor vote. This surge reflects the GOP Senate majority's backing, Sen. Thom Tillis lifting his hold after the DOJ ended its probe into Jerome Powell, and expected crossover support from Sen. John Fetterman, despite Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren during April hearings. With Powell's term expiring May 15, momentum favors swift confirmation; realistic challenges include a filibuster requiring 60-vote cloture, unforeseen scandals, or nominee withdrawal.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, commands 99.3% trader consensus for Senate confirmation as Fed Chair following the Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line approval on April 29, clearing a key hurdle ahead of a full Senate floor vote. This surge reflects the GOP Senate majority's backing, Sen. Thom Tillis lifting his hold after the DOJ ended its probe into Jerome Powell, and expected crossover support from Sen. John Fetterman, despite Democratic opposition led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren during April hearings. With Powell's term expiring May 15, momentum favors swift confirmation; realistic challenges include a filibuster requiring 60-vote cloture, unforeseen scandals, or nominee withdrawal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 29 2026
Fed meeting confirms Jerome Powell will likely step down as Chair in May 2026;
no indication of Bowman as successor, keeping her market
Apr 26 2026
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee
Kevin Warsh jumps to 99%5%
Senator Thom Tillis drops his hold on Warsh’s nomination after the DOJ closes its investigation into Jerome Powell, clearing a major obstacle and paving the way for committee approval and a full Senate vote
Apr 21 2026
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets
Kevin Warsh rises to 95%1%
Kevin Warsh appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, pledging Fed independence and outlining policy views, a critical step that reassured markets about his suitability and advanced his confirmation prospects
Mar 31 2026
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair
Bowman speaks at Consumer Bankers Association conference emphasizing support for small business credit through capital rule changes, maintaining visibility but no Chair confirmation news
Mar 18 2026
Reports emerge that Warsh’s nomination is stalled due to Senate hold by Sen.
Kevin Warsh dips to 94%1%
Thom Tillis and missing financial disclosure paperwork, raising uncertainty about the confirmation timeline and causing market hesitation
Mar 17 2026
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Michelle Bowman rises to 3%1%
Bowman announces upcoming Fed proposals aimed at reducing banks' regulatory costs in mortgage lending, reinforcing her role in supervision but not as Chair candidate
Mar 12 2026
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Michelle Bowman rises to 2%2%
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman previews major Basel III capital rule proposals at Cato Institute, signaling regulatory influence but no nomination as Chair
Mar 4 2026
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political
Kevin Warsh jumps to 94%5%
President Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, transmitting the nomination to the Senate, marking the formal start of the confirmation process amid political opposition from Senator Thom Tillis who vowed to block nominees until the DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Kevin Warsh" con 99%, seguido de "Judy Shelton" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 99¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" ha generado $49.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 4, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" es "Kevin Warsh" con 99%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Judy Shelton" con 1%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $49.7 million operados en “¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 99¢ para "Kevin Warsh" en el mercado "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 99% de que "Kevin Warsh" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 99¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 1¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Oct 31, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?" tiene una comunidad activa de 91 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Quién será confirmado como presidente de la Fed?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes