Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #3 AI model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by end of April 2026, driven by its Claude Opus family dominating the top three positions. The April 16 launch of Claude Opus 4.7, Anthropic's most advanced large language model to date, showcased superior reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, propelling it ahead in blind human-evaluated battles that prioritize substantive responses over stylistic presentation with Style Control activated. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of recent Elo gains, though a late OpenAI GPT-5.x update or unexpected battle surges could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 97.5%
OpenAI 1.8%
DeepSeek <1%
Meta <1%
$139,978 Vol.
$139,978 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.5%
OpenAI 1.8%
DeepSeek <1%
Meta <1%
$139,978 Vol.
$139,978 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
$42,730 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$18,691 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$9,593 Vol.
1%
Meta
$12,886 Vol.
<1%
$10,090 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$3,620 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$3,795 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$6,791 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$6,382 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$8,178 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$4,255 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$5,670 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$3,713 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$2,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #3 AI model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by end of April 2026, driven by its Claude Opus family dominating the top three positions. The April 16 launch of Claude Opus 4.7, Anthropic's most advanced large language model to date, showcased superior reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, propelling it ahead in blind human-evaluated battles that prioritize substantive responses over stylistic presentation with Style Control activated. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of recent Elo gains, though a late OpenAI GPT-5.x update or unexpected battle surges could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volumen
$139,978Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #3 AI model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by end of April 2026, driven by its Claude Opus family dominating the top three positions. The April 16 launch of Claude Opus 4.7, Anthropic's most advanced large language model to date, showcased superior reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, propelling it ahead in blind human-evaluated battles that prioritize substantive responses over stylistic presentation with Style Control activated. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of recent Elo gains, though a late OpenAI GPT-5.x update or unexpected battle surges could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$139,978Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #3 AI model spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (Style Control On) by end of April 2026, driven by its Claude Opus family dominating the top three positions. The April 16 launch of Claude Opus 4.7, Anthropic's most advanced large language model to date, showcased superior reasoning and coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, propelling it ahead in blind human-evaluated battles that prioritize substantive responses over stylistic presentation with Style Control activated. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of recent Elo gains, though a late OpenAI GPT-5.x update or unexpected battle surges could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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