Anthropic commands a 50% implied probability for holding the top spot on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which surged to lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena at ~1505 Elo and SWE-bench Verified at 87.6%, excelling in coding and reasoning while neutralizing stylistic biases. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails at 31.5% odds, buoyed by strong GPQA Diamond scores near 94% and multimodal advances, positioning DeepMind as a formidable challenger amid fractured leaderboards. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to reclaim primacy, slipping to 8.5% as persistent memory upgrades bolster Anthropic's edge; traders anticipate May-June releases or evaluations as key catalysts in this rapidly evolving AI capability race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 51%
Google 32%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.6%
$1,422,322 Vol.
$1,422,322 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
51%
32%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
4%
DeepSeek
3%
Z.ai
2%
Meta
2%
ByteDance
2%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 51%
Google 32%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.6%
$1,422,322 Vol.
$1,422,322 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$25,734 Vol.
51%
$17,079 Vol.
32%
OpenAI
$47,810 Vol.
9%
xAI
$12,237 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$199,439 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$412,004 Vol.
2%
Meta
$5,940 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$12,341 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$17,191 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$269,023 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$134,682 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,082 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$51,935 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,383 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,448 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 50% implied probability for holding the top spot on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which surged to lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena at ~1505 Elo and SWE-bench Verified at 87.6%, excelling in coding and reasoning while neutralizing stylistic biases. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails at 31.5% odds, buoyed by strong GPQA Diamond scores near 94% and multimodal advances, positioning DeepMind as a formidable challenger amid fractured leaderboards. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to reclaim primacy, slipping to 8.5% as persistent memory upgrades bolster Anthropic's edge; traders anticipate May-June releases or evaluations as key catalysts in this rapidly evolving AI capability race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,422,322Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 50% implied probability for holding the top spot on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which surged to lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena at ~1505 Elo and SWE-bench Verified at 87.6%, excelling in coding and reasoning while neutralizing stylistic biases. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails at 31.5% odds, buoyed by strong GPQA Diamond scores near 94% and multimodal advances, positioning DeepMind as a formidable challenger amid fractured leaderboards. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to reclaim primacy, slipping to 8.5% as persistent memory upgrades bolster Anthropic's edge; traders anticipate May-June releases or evaluations as key catalysts in this rapidly evolving AI capability race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,422,322Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 50% implied probability for holding the top spot on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which surged to lead LMSYS Chatbot Arena at ~1505 Elo and SWE-bench Verified at 87.6%, excelling in coding and reasoning while neutralizing stylistic biases. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview trails at 31.5% odds, buoyed by strong GPQA Diamond scores near 94% and multimodal advances, positioning DeepMind as a formidable challenger amid fractured leaderboards. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to reclaim primacy, slipping to 8.5% as persistent memory upgrades bolster Anthropic's edge; traders anticipate May-June releases or evaluations as key catalysts in this rapidly evolving AI capability race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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