Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and Claude Fable 5 in early June have driven its overwhelming 88.5% market-implied probability, as these models currently top composite leaderboards and key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for agentic coding and overall intelligence indices. The company’s frontier large language models demonstrate superior performance in long-context reasoning, instruction following, and dynamic workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 variants in head-to-head evaluations. With only 16 days until resolution, limited time remains for competitors to launch displacing updates, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities and benchmark leadership.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 89%
Google 7%
OpenAI 3.8%
Meta <1%
$1,750,615 Vol.
$1,750,615 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
89%
7%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 7%
OpenAI 3.8%
Meta <1%
$1,750,615 Vol.
$1,750,615 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$56,188 Vol.
89%
$41,637 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$70,163 Vol.
4%
Meta
$22,054 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$31,004 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$215,511 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$435,339 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$86,081 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$27,705 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$33,976 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$27,249 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$156,735 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$226,670 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$297,189 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$23,115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and Claude Fable 5 in early June have driven its overwhelming 88.5% market-implied probability, as these models currently top composite leaderboards and key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for agentic coding and overall intelligence indices. The company’s frontier large language models demonstrate superior performance in long-context reasoning, instruction following, and dynamic workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 variants in head-to-head evaluations. With only 16 days until resolution, limited time remains for competitors to launch displacing updates, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities and benchmark leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,750,615Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and Claude Fable 5 in early June have driven its overwhelming 88.5% market-implied probability, as these models currently top composite leaderboards and key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for agentic coding and overall intelligence indices. The company’s frontier large language models demonstrate superior performance in long-context reasoning, instruction following, and dynamic workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 variants in head-to-head evaluations. With only 16 days until resolution, limited time remains for competitors to launch displacing updates, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities and benchmark leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,750,615Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and Claude Fable 5 in early June have driven its overwhelming 88.5% market-implied probability, as these models currently top composite leaderboards and key benchmarks such as SWE-bench for agentic coding and overall intelligence indices. The company’s frontier large language models demonstrate superior performance in long-context reasoning, instruction following, and dynamic workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3 variants in head-to-head evaluations. With only 16 days until resolution, limited time remains for competitors to launch displacing updates, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic’s sustained edge in demonstrated capabilities and benchmark leadership.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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