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Economía·Parcl

¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?

icon for ¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?
Economía·Parcl

¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?

$1.172M - $1.181M 29%

<$1.172M 28%

$1.181M - $1.190M 27%

$1.190M - $1.199M 13%

Polymarket
NUEVO

$1.172M - $1.181M 29%

<$1.172M 28%

$1.181M - $1.190M 27%

$1.190M - $1.199M 13%

Polymarket
NUEVO

<$1.172M

$104 Vol.

28%

$1.172M - $1.181M

$144 Vol.

30%

$1.181M - $1.190M

$221 Vol.

25%

$1.190M - $1.199M

$75 Vol.

13%

$1.199M - $1.208M

$48 Vol.

9%

$1.208M - $1.216M

$40 Vol.

6%

>$1.216M

$40 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)**Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% continue to weigh on buyer affordability in the high-cost Los Angeles Metro area, supporting the market's lean toward the <$1.172M outcome at 54% implied probability while keeping the $1.199M–$1.208M range a close second at 44%.** Recent Redfin and Zillow data show median sale prices and home values clustered around $950k–$1.05M through May 2026, with year-over-year changes ranging from flat to modestly negative amid rising inventory and slower sales velocity. Persistent low affordability—only about 18–23% of households qualifying for median-tier homes—has capped demand, while limited but gradually increasing supply has prevented sharper declines. Forecasts from sources like Zillow and Realtor.com anticipate only 0.3–2% national or regional price growth for 2026 overall, with LA-specific trends reflecting similar moderation due to elevated borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. With resolution just two weeks away, trader consensus reflects the narrow window for meaningful shifts before June 30 data is finalized.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)
Volumen
$672
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)**Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5% continue to weigh on buyer affordability in the high-cost Los Angeles Metro area, supporting the market's lean toward the <$1.172M outcome at 54% implied probability while keeping the $1.199M–$1.208M range a close second at 44%.** Recent Redfin and Zillow data show median sale prices and home values clustered around $950k–$1.05M through May 2026, with year-over-year changes ranging from flat to modestly negative amid rising inventory and slower sales velocity. Persistent low affordability—only about 18–23% of households qualifying for median-tier homes—has capped demand, while limited but gradually increasing supply has prevented sharper declines. Forecasts from sources like Zillow and Realtor.com anticipate only 0.3–2% national or regional price growth for 2026 overall, with LA-specific trends reflecting similar moderation due to elevated borrowing costs and economic uncertainty. With resolution just two weeks away, trader consensus reflects the narrow window for meaningful shifts before June 30 data is finalized.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)
Volumen
$672
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026. If no data for June 30 is released by July 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/40)

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "$1.172M - $1.181M" con 30%, seguido de "<$1.172M" con 28%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 30¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jun 3, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?" es "$1.172M - $1.181M" con 30%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 30% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "<$1.172M" con 28%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuál será el valor medio de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Los Ángeles el 30 de junio?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.