Polymarket traders price a 57% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no further cuts from the current 3.50%–3.75% target range, as affirmed in the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold steady amid an 8-4 dissent favoring easing. Surging March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—has tempered rate-cut expectations, with Fed funds futures implying a steady path around 3.6% through year-end. This contrasts slightly with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4%, underscoring sticky price pressures and resilient labor markets. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3.75% 56.0%
3.5% 17%
3.25% 14%
4,0% 6.8%
$6,457,741 Vol.
$6,457,741 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2.25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
4%
3,0%
5%
3.25%
14%
3.5%
17%
3.75%
56%
4,0%
7%
4.25%
3%
≥ 4.5%
2%
3.75% 56.0%
3.5% 17%
3.25% 14%
4,0% 6.8%
$6,457,741 Vol.
$6,457,741 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
$212,621 Vol.
<1%
1.25
$131,305 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$128,022 Vol.
1%
1.75%
$126,679 Vol.
<1%
2,0%
$238,955 Vol.
<1%
2.25%
$68,551 Vol.
1%
2,5%
$156,976 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$36,939 Vol.
4%
3,0%
$452,594 Vol.
5%
3.25%
$49,541 Vol.
14%
3.5%
$188,351 Vol.
17%
3.75%
$514,428 Vol.
56%
4,0%
$1,351,496 Vol.
7%
4.25%
$409,626 Vol.
3%
≥ 4.5%
$2,391,660 Vol.
2%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 57% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no further cuts from the current 3.50%–3.75% target range, as affirmed in the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold steady amid an 8-4 dissent favoring easing. Surging March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—has tempered rate-cut expectations, with Fed funds futures implying a steady path around 3.6% through year-end. This contrasts slightly with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4%, underscoring sticky price pressures and resilient labor markets. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$6,457,741Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 57% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no further cuts from the current 3.50%–3.75% target range, as affirmed in the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold steady amid an 8-4 dissent favoring easing. Surging March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—has tempered rate-cut expectations, with Fed funds futures implying a steady path around 3.6% through year-end. This contrasts slightly with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4%, underscoring sticky price pressures and resilient labor markets. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,457,741Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 57% implied probability for the federal funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting consensus for no further cuts from the current 3.50%–3.75% target range, as affirmed in the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold steady amid an 8-4 dissent favoring easing. Surging March 2026 CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—has tempered rate-cut expectations, with Fed funds futures implying a steady path around 3.6% through year-end. This contrasts slightly with the March dot plot's median projection of 3.4%, underscoring sticky price pressures and resilient labor markets. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and June FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts for sentiment shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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