A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed April 7 after US and Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities, has held through April 30 without verified new Iranian military actions—such as drones, missiles, or airstrikes—against Israel, US bases, Saudi oil facilities like Ghawar Field or Ras Tanura, or other Gulf targets. President Trump has refused Iran's offer to suspend uranium enrichment for five years, insisting on longer terms amid a naval blockade squeezing Iran's oil exports and spiking global prices above $120 per barrel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned April 30 of possible renewed strikes on Iran, while CENTCOM prepares contingencies, underscoring ceasefire uncertainty and trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?
¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?
$556,277 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Yacimiento Leviatán
3%
Refinería de Ruwais
1%
Burj Khalifa
1%
Campo Ghawar
1%
Campo Safaniya
<1%
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear del Néguev Shimon Peres)
<1%
instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
<1%
Ras Tanura
<1%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
<1%
Refinería de Al Zour
<1%
Ciudad Industrial de Ras Laffan
<1%
Campo Khurais
<1%
$556,277 Vol.
Yacimiento Leviatán
$11,835 Vol.
3%
Refinería de Ruwais
$47,238 Vol.
1%
Burj Khalifa
$14,023 Vol.
1%
Campo Ghawar
$20,784 Vol.
1%
Campo Safaniya
$17,945 Vol.
<1%
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear del Néguev Shimon Peres)
$96,891 Vol.
<1%
instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
$46,694 Vol.
<1%
Ras Tanura
$45,792 Vol.
<1%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
$52,951 Vol.
<1%
Refinería de Al Zour
$31,892 Vol.
<1%
Ciudad Industrial de Ras Laffan
$48,171 Vol.
<1%
Campo Khurais
$18,874 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed April 7 after US and Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities, has held through April 30 without verified new Iranian military actions—such as drones, missiles, or airstrikes—against Israel, US bases, Saudi oil facilities like Ghawar Field or Ras Tanura, or other Gulf targets. President Trump has refused Iran's offer to suspend uranium enrichment for five years, insisting on longer terms amid a naval blockade squeezing Iran's oil exports and spiking global prices above $120 per barrel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned April 30 of possible renewed strikes on Iran, while CENTCOM prepares contingencies, underscoring ceasefire uncertainty and trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$556,277Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed April 7 after US and Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities, has held through April 30 without verified new Iranian military actions—such as drones, missiles, or airstrikes—against Israel, US bases, Saudi oil facilities like Ghawar Field or Ras Tanura, or other Gulf targets. President Trump has refused Iran's offer to suspend uranium enrichment for five years, insisting on longer terms amid a naval blockade squeezing Iran's oil exports and spiking global prices above $120 per barrel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned April 30 of possible renewed strikes on Iran, while CENTCOM prepares contingencies, underscoring ceasefire uncertainty and trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$556,277Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, agreed April 7 after US and Israeli strikes degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities, has held through April 30 without verified new Iranian military actions—such as drones, missiles, or airstrikes—against Israel, US bases, Saudi oil facilities like Ghawar Field or Ras Tanura, or other Gulf targets. President Trump has refused Iran's offer to suspend uranium enrichment for five years, insisting on longer terms amid a naval blockade squeezing Iran's oil exports and spiking global prices above $120 per barrel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned April 30 of possible renewed strikes on Iran, while CENTCOM prepares contingencies, underscoring ceasefire uncertainty and trader focus on diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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