Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid solid economic activity but high uncertainty from Middle East developments; notable dissent with some members voting to lower rates

↑ 5.25% surges to 23%19%

The April 2026 pause, combined with geopolitical uncertainty and dissent within the Fed, briefly increased market odds for a higher rate, reflecting uncertainty about future hikes.

Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Powell’s final meeting as Chair, dissent signals hawkish tilt

↓ 3.25% drops to 49%7%

The Fed kept rates steady with four dissenters opposing the easing bias, reflecting a more hawkish stance amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Powell’s decision to remain on the Fed board added to market uncertainty about future policy direction.

Fed holds rates steady with no immediate plans for cuts;

↓ 2.75% dips to 13%4%

persistent inflation and divided Fed views keep market pricing low probability of rate reaching 2.75%

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty and labor market stabilization, solidifying market view that rates will not drop to 2.5% by year-end

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty and labor market stabilization, solidifying market view that rates will not drop to 2.5% by year-end

Fed begins buying short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample reserves, signaling a shift from easing to stabilization of monetary policy, further lowering expectations for rate

↓ 2.5% drops to 9%10%

Fed begins buying short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample reserves, signaling a shift from easing to stabilization of monetary policy, further lowering expectations for rate cuts to 2.5%

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting in April 2026, with dissent from one governor who favored a 25 basis-point cut, confirming market

↑ 4.25% rises to 8%3%

The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting in April 2026, with dissent from one governor who favored a 25 basis-point cut, confirming market expectations of no near-term hikes and keeping the probability of hitting 4.25% low

Continued economic data releases show inflation above target and labor market resilience;

↓ 3.0% drops to 24%9%

Fed’s cautious stance and lack of clear signals on further cuts depress market probability

Fed keeps the target range at 3.5 %‑3.75% for a third consecutive April meeting, with a dissenting vote to lower rates, underscoring limited upside for further cuts

↓ 2.25% drops to 6%7%

Fed keeps the target range at 3.5 %‑3.75% for a third consecutive April meeting, with a dissenting vote to lower rates, underscoring limited upside for further cuts

| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 6%1%

| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |

Market reacts to Fed’s continued hold on rates amid mixed economic signals

↓ 3.25% jumps to 67%12%

Despite no rate change, some optimism returned as investors weighed the Fed’s cautious stance and potential for future cuts if economic conditions weaken.

Fed holds rates steady again, signaling no immediate cuts despite inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% drops to 71%7%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with some officials dissenting on the easing bias in the statement. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation volatility contributed to market reassessment of rate cut timing.

Continued Fed caution amid inflation above target and labor market concerns leads to further decline in market odds for rate dropping to 2.75% or below by end of 2026

Continued Fed caution amid inflation above target and labor market concerns leads to further decline in market odds for rate dropping to 2.75% or below by end of 2026

Market reacts to further data showing inflation persistence and labor market strength;

↓ 3.0% drops to 21%10%

Fed members divided on cuts, increasing uncertainty and pushing

FOMC meeting holds rates steady amid ongoing inflation above target and solid employment;

↓ 3.0% plunges to 31%25%

market sharply lowers cut probability after Fed signals patience

FOMC minutes reveal wait-and-see approach, no rate changes amid inflation and geopolitical risks

↓ 3.25% drops to 78%14%

The March 2026 FOMC meeting minutes showed the Fed holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict and uncertainty in economic outlook, which tempered expectations for further cuts.

| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |

↓ 2.25% dips to 7%2%

| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |

Market reacts to Fed’s steady rate stance and inflation uncertainty, pushing down probability of rate falling to 2.75% as Fed signals patience and data dependency for future moves

↓ 2.75% drops to 40%13%

Market reacts to Fed’s steady rate stance and inflation uncertainty, pushing down probability of rate falling to 2.75% as Fed signals patience and data dependency for future moves

Fed’s March minutes show futures pricing a higher near‑term path and no cut fully

↓ 2.25% dips to 13%1%

Fed’s March minutes show futures pricing a higher near‑term path and no cut fully

Market reacts to Fed comments emphasizing data dependency and cautious approach to further cuts, with officials noting risks of premature easing

↓ 2.5% dips to 16%4%

Market reacts to Fed comments emphasizing data dependency and cautious approach to further cuts, with officials noting risks of premature easing

Fed maintains target range at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling cautious stance as inflation remains elevated and labor market softens;

market adjusts expectations for further cuts accordingly

Market reacts to mixed economic data with inflation cooling but labor market remaining solid;

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%12%

Fed signals “wait-and-see” approach, dampening probability of cuts to 3.0%

Reuters notes a “sharply divided Fed” delivering a 25‑bp cut but emphasizing a likely pause, citing softening labor data and “somewhat elevated” inflation, further dampening odds

↓ 2.25% dips to 14%4%

Reuters notes a “sharply divided Fed” delivering a 25‑bp cut but emphasizing a likely pause, citing softening labor data and “somewhat elevated” inflation, further dampening odds of a 2.25 % rate

Fed signals pause in rate cuts as inflation remains above target and labor market shows signs of stabilization, reducing odds of rates falling to 2.5%

↓ 2.5% drops to 17%7%

Fed signals pause in rate cuts as inflation remains above target and labor market shows signs of stabilization, reducing odds of rates falling to 2.5%

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50–3.75% with a 2-vote dissent preferring a cut;

↓ 3.0% drops to 70%11%

data showed inflation still above target and solid labor market, reducing near-term cut expectations

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting amid mixed economic signals and ongoing debate over inflation and labor market strength

↓ 2.5% drops to 24%9%

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting amid mixed economic signals and ongoing debate over inflation and labor market strength

| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |

↓ 2.25% dips to 9%2%

| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |

Fed rate cut optimism peaks as market

↓ 3.25% jumps to 96%5%

Following the December rate cut and cautious Fed guidance, market confidence in the rate reaching 3.25% or lower peaked, reflecting expectations of continued easing in 2026.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and stable unemployment;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 69%8%

four dissenters favor rate cuts, reflecting ongoing policy debate

Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %‑4.50% for a fourth straight meeting, with “somewhat elevated” inflation and uncertainty, reinforcing expectations that rates will stay well above

↓ 2.25% drops to 18%9%

Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %‑4.50% for a fourth straight meeting, with “somewhat elevated” inflation and uncertainty, reinforcing expectations that rates will stay well above 2.25 %

Fed minutes reveal deep divisions over December rate cut;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 61%14%

some officials favored holding rates steady due to inflation concerns, others supported cuts to aid labor market, highlighting uncertainty about future policy

Fed minutes reveal tight split among officials on December rate cut decision, with six opposing cuts and concerns about inflation progress stalling;

↓ 2.5% drops to 23%10%

market interprets this as a signal of limited further easing

Fed minutes reveal deep divisions on timing and extent of further rate cuts, with some officials dissenting against cuts and others favoring caution

↑ 5.25% dips to 2%4%

The release of December meeting minutes highlighted Fed uncertainty and disagreement, dampening market confidence in a rate rise to 5.25%.

December jobs and inflation data show slowing job growth and easing inflation, justifying the December rate cut but raising doubts about additional cuts soon; market skepticism

↓ 3.0% drops to 56%12%

December jobs and inflation data show slowing job growth and easing inflation, justifying the December rate cut but raising doubts about additional cuts soon; market skepticism grows

| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 11%3%

| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |

Fed Governor Christopher Waller states that recent rate cuts have helped offset hiring risks, but inflation remains above target;

↓ 2.75% rises to 47%3%

Fed’s Treasury bill purchases to manage liquidity are not stimulus

Fed signaled a pause on rate cuts amid data uncertainty and leadership changes, contrasting with market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, reinforcing a slower easing path

↑ 4.25% dips to 5%3%

Fed signaled a pause on rate cuts amid data uncertainty and leadership changes, contrasting with market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, reinforcing a slower easing path and reducing chances of rates rising back to 4.25%

Reuters reports the Fed “signals pause on rate cuts” after the December meeting, noting investors now expect only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, pushing the 2.25 % target

↓ 2.25% drops to 27%7%

Reuters reports the Fed “signals pause on rate cuts” after the December meeting, noting investors now expect only one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, pushing the 2.25 % target further out of reach

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% target range in a sharply divided vote, signaling a pause on further cuts and projecting only one cut in

↑ 4.25% drops to 8%6%

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% target range in a sharply divided vote, signaling a pause on further cuts and projecting only one cut in 2026; this "hawkish cut" and cautious outlook caused a drop in the probability of rates reaching 4.25%

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% amid weak labor market and inflation concerns

↑ 5.25% dips to 6%4%

The December 2025 rate cut, despite internal dissent and limited data, reinforced expectations of a lower peak rate, pushing market probability further down.

Fed cuts rates to 3.5 %‑3.75 % in its final 2025 meeting, marking a third 25‑bp cut this year and highlighting a divided committee

↓ 2.25% plunges to 34%16%

Fed cuts rates to 3.5 %‑3.75 % in its final 2025 meeting, marking a third 25‑bp cut this year and highlighting a divided committee

Federal Reserve cuts rates again to 3.5%-3.75%, signaling cautious outlook for 2026

↓ 3.25% dips to 85%3%

The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points for the third time in 2025, with three dissenters opposing the cut. The Fed emphasized a higher bar for future cuts, signaling a more cautious approach amid mixed economic signals.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% target range at December FOMC meeting, marking third consecutive cut in 2025;

↓ 2.5% jumps to 37%14%

Chair Powell warns of "no risk-free path" and highlights economic uncertainty amid government data delays

FOMC cuts rates by 0.25% to 3.50–3.75%, the third cut in 2025, describing the stance as neutral;

↓ 3.0% drops to 68%5%

dissent among members and cautious forward guidance led to market uncertainty about further cuts

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September 2024, signaling easing to support the labor market

↓ 2.75% drops to 37%13%

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut since September 2024, signaling easing to support the labor market despite inflation concerns

U.S. dollar falls after Fed rate cut;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 44%7%

Fed signals likely pause in easing cycle at next meeting, reflecting cautious outlook and uncertainty about further cuts

Three FOMC members dissent against the December rate cut, reflecting deep divisions within the Fed on the pace and extent of easing;

↓ 2.5% dips to 33%4%

dot plot signals only one cut in 2026 and one in 2027, tempering expectations for aggressive rate declines

Freddie Mac reports 30-year fixed mortgage rates decline slightly to 6.19%, reflecting easing financial conditions ahead of Fed meeting

↓ 2.5% drops to 20%14%

Freddie Mac reports 30-year fixed mortgage rates decline slightly to 6.19%, reflecting easing financial conditions ahead of Fed meeting

Market optimism surged as Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams and others signaled near-term rate cuts were likely, boosting expectations for a December

↑ 4.25% rises to 14%4%

Market optimism surged as Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams and others signaled near-term rate cuts were likely, boosting expectations for a December rate cut and pushing market odds for a 25 basis-point cut above 80%

New York Fed President John Williams states all options remain on the table for December meeting, supporting market expectations of further cuts;

↓ 3.0% surges to 74%32%

Fed officials’ speeches in November helped reverse market losses

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates despite concerns over inflation and public trust risks; divided committee signals uncertainty about future rate direction

↑ 5.25% plunges to 11%39%

The Fed cut rates in November 2025 amid caution about inflation risks and public trust, with many policymakers favoring cuts but some preferring to hold steady, triggering a sharp drop in market odds for a 5.25% rate.

Several Fed policymakers opposed the November rate cut, expressing concern that inflation progress had stalled and longer-term inflation expectations could rise, highlighting

↑ 4.25% plunges to 10%40%

Several Fed policymakers opposed the November rate cut, expressing concern that inflation progress had stalled and longer-term inflation expectations could rise, highlighting internal Fed divisions and uncertainty about future rate hikes

FOMC cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% amid divided opinions

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic growth. The split vote highlighted uncertainty about future policy direction, boosting market expectations for further cuts.

Fed officials debate rate cuts amid mixed economic signals and government data delays; some policymakers advocate for continued cuts while others resist

↑ 5.25% dips to 10%1%

Ahead of the November cut, Fed members showed division on rate policy due to weak job creation and delayed data from the government shutdown, contributing to market volatility.

Markets expect a finely balanced Fed decision on whether to cut or hold rates at 3.75%-4%, with some policymakers favoring cuts to bring rates closer to 3% in 2026 amid mixed

Markets expect a finely balanced Fed decision on whether to cut or hold rates at 3.75%-4%, with some policymakers favoring cuts to bring rates closer to 3% in 2026 amid mixed economic signals

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett publicly supports a half-point Fed rate cut ahead of December meeting, raising market expectations for easing

↓ 2.5% plunges to 33%18%

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett publicly supports a half-point Fed rate cut ahead of December meeting, raising market expectations for easing

FOMC cuts Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% to 4.50–4.75%, signaling ongoing rate cuts but with a cautious tone on pace;

↓ 3.0% surges to 72%21%

markets expected further cuts but uncertainty remained

| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |

↓ 2.25% dips to 14%4%

| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |

| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |

↓ 2.25% drops to 18%9%

| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |

| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 27%3%

| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |

| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |

↓ 2.25% dips to 30%4%

| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |

| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |

↓ 2.25% plunges to 34%16%

| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |