Recent bilateral negotiations have produced a framework extending U.S.-China tariff suspensions and reciprocal reductions through November 2026, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls. Executive actions following the November 2025 accord lowered fentanyl-related duties and maintained the 10% reciprocal rate, while a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling prompted further executive orders ending certain IEEPA-based measures. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including planned leader-level reviews, continue to address Section 301 exclusions and rare earth issues. Traders assign the 77.5% implied probability to these sustained de-escalation steps and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the December 31, 2026 deadline, though unresolved disputes over technology and market access could still alter the timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$17,516 Vol.
$17,516 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$17,516 Vol.
$17,516 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral negotiations have produced a framework extending U.S.-China tariff suspensions and reciprocal reductions through November 2026, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls. Executive actions following the November 2025 accord lowered fentanyl-related duties and maintained the 10% reciprocal rate, while a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling prompted further executive orders ending certain IEEPA-based measures. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including planned leader-level reviews, continue to address Section 301 exclusions and rare earth issues. Traders assign the 77.5% implied probability to these sustained de-escalation steps and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the December 31, 2026 deadline, though unresolved disputes over technology and market access could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volumen
$17,516Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral negotiations have produced a framework extending U.S.-China tariff suspensions and reciprocal reductions through November 2026, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls. Executive actions following the November 2025 accord lowered fentanyl-related duties and maintained the 10% reciprocal rate, while a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling prompted further executive orders ending certain IEEPA-based measures. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including planned leader-level reviews, continue to address Section 301 exclusions and rare earth issues. Traders assign the 77.5% implied probability to these sustained de-escalation steps and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the December 31, 2026 deadline, though unresolved disputes over technology and market access could still alter the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$17,516Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent bilateral negotiations have produced a framework extending U.S.-China tariff suspensions and reciprocal reductions through November 2026, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls. Executive actions following the November 2025 accord lowered fentanyl-related duties and maintained the 10% reciprocal rate, while a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling prompted further executive orders ending certain IEEPA-based measures. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including planned leader-level reviews, continue to address Section 301 exclusions and rare earth issues. Traders assign the 77.5% implied probability to these sustained de-escalation steps and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the December 31, 2026 deadline, though unresolved disputes over technology and market access could still alter the timeline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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