Recent progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has supported the 69.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. Talks resumed after the 2026 ceasefire, with reports in late May indicating the sides neared a memorandum covering Iran's nuclear program, enriched uranium stockpile removal, and sanctions relief tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials described substantial advancement on verification commitments and a long-term non-weapons pledge, though enrichment limits and timelines remain points of discussion. President Trump has signaled a possible signing in the coming weeks, while Iranian statements note ongoing consultations without confirming an immediate date. These diplomatic steps, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Vienna, underpin trader consensus on near-term resolution before the July deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
$342,039 Vol.
$342,039 Vol.
31 jul 2026
$342,039 Vol.
$342,039 Vol.
31 jul 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has supported the 69.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. Talks resumed after the 2026 ceasefire, with reports in late May indicating the sides neared a memorandum covering Iran's nuclear program, enriched uranium stockpile removal, and sanctions relief tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials described substantial advancement on verification commitments and a long-term non-weapons pledge, though enrichment limits and timelines remain points of discussion. President Trump has signaled a possible signing in the coming weeks, while Iranian statements note ongoing consultations without confirming an immediate date. These diplomatic steps, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Vienna, underpin trader consensus on near-term resolution before the July deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volumen
$342,039Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has supported the 69.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. Talks resumed after the 2026 ceasefire, with reports in late May indicating the sides neared a memorandum covering Iran's nuclear program, enriched uranium stockpile removal, and sanctions relief tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials described substantial advancement on verification commitments and a long-term non-weapons pledge, though enrichment limits and timelines remain points of discussion. President Trump has signaled a possible signing in the coming weeks, while Iranian statements note ongoing consultations without confirming an immediate date. These diplomatic steps, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Vienna, underpin trader consensus on near-term resolution before the July deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$342,049Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations has supported the 69.5% implied probability for a nuclear agreement by July 31. Talks resumed after the 2026 ceasefire, with reports in late May indicating the sides neared a memorandum covering Iran's nuclear program, enriched uranium stockpile removal, and sanctions relief tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials described substantial advancement on verification commitments and a long-term non-weapons pledge, though enrichment limits and timelines remain points of discussion. President Trump has signaled a possible signing in the coming weeks, while Iranian statements note ongoing consultations without confirming an immediate date. These diplomatic steps, following earlier rounds in Geneva and Vienna, underpin trader consensus on near-term resolution before the July deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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