With the April 30 deadline imminent, traders price a 99% chance the U.S. will not fully evacuate its Beirut Embassy, reflecting the State Department's prior ordered departure of non-emergency personnel in February and continued limited operations amid Lebanon's volatile security environment. Recent alerts on April 22 reiterated risks of terrorism, kidnapping, and protests while urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no escalation—such as airstrikes on Beirut or Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire collapse—has prompted full embassy closure or staff extraction. Embassy services remain available on an emergency basis, underscoring sustained diplomatic presence. Only sudden military intensification or diplomatic crisis could shift this trader consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
$23,916 Vol.
$23,916 Vol.
30 abr 2026
$23,916 Vol.
$23,916 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. With the April 30 deadline imminent, traders price a 99% chance the U.S. will not fully evacuate its Beirut Embassy, reflecting the State Department's prior ordered departure of non-emergency personnel in February and continued limited operations amid Lebanon's volatile security environment. Recent alerts on April 22 reiterated risks of terrorism, kidnapping, and protests while urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no escalation—such as airstrikes on Beirut or Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire collapse—has prompted full embassy closure or staff extraction. Embassy services remain available on an emergency basis, underscoring sustained diplomatic presence. Only sudden military intensification or diplomatic crisis could shift this trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volumen
$23,916Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy. With the April 30 deadline imminent, traders price a 99% chance the U.S. will not fully evacuate its Beirut Embassy, reflecting the State Department's prior ordered departure of non-emergency personnel in February and continued limited operations amid Lebanon's volatile security environment. Recent alerts on April 22 reiterated risks of terrorism, kidnapping, and protests while urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no escalation—such as airstrikes on Beirut or Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire collapse—has prompted full embassy closure or staff extraction. Embassy services remain available on an emergency basis, underscoring sustained diplomatic presence. Only sudden military intensification or diplomatic crisis could shift this trader consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Volumen
$23,916Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the April 30 deadline imminent, traders price a 99% chance the U.S. will not fully evacuate its Beirut Embassy, reflecting the State Department's prior ordered departure of non-emergency personnel in February and continued limited operations amid Lebanon's volatile security environment. Recent alerts on April 22 reiterated risks of terrorism, kidnapping, and protests while urging U.S. citizens to depart via commercial flights, but no escalation—such as airstrikes on Beirut or Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire collapse—has prompted full embassy closure or staff extraction. Embassy services remain available on an emergency basis, underscoring sustained diplomatic presence. Only sudden military intensification or diplomatic crisis could shift this trader consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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