Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 96.7% that Tucker Carlson will not face federal charges, driven by the absence of any DOJ indictment, arraignment, or formal investigation announcement following his March 2026 claims of a CIA criminal referral over alleged Iran contacts. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those fears, with no procedural developments—such as grand jury activity or special counsel appointment—emerging in the subsequent six weeks. Historical precedent shows journalists routinely engage foreign sources without prosecution under FARA or espionage statutes absent covert action. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking evidence prompting DOJ charges, a whistleblower revelation, or policy reversal amid geopolitical tensions with Iran, though institutional barriers and political alignment under the current administration make this improbable before resolution.